following the political developments of the 1990s. The Madhes Movement, for its part, is painted as dangerous to the very sovereignty and territorial integrity of Nepal as a nation state.

The deep state

It is thus only natural that the elites would join hands to thwart the efforts by newer parties to radically restructure the state and the redefine the relationship between different segments of society. The status quoist forces, by definition, consist of the powerful sectors that control a state—the security apparatus, the political class, the bureaucracy, the financial sector and the media. Together, they form the Deep State, and when they march in lockstep, any effort to transform society is an uphill task. Since 2006, the deep state has worked relentlessly to undermine the transformation process.

The results of the second Constituent Assembly elections show that they have succeeded to a large extent. With the Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML, along with the two Rastriya Prajantantra Parties, having won a two-thirds majority in the CA, it looks increasingly likely that the aspirations raised in Janaandolan II will be put on hold. The early indications of the post election politics point to this. The pettiness of the struggle between the NC and UML during government formation, the fight for the Home Ministry portfolio and the lack of inclusiveness and youthful faces in the Cabinet are all reminiscent of the deformed democracy of the post 1990 period.

Decentralisation and devolution

To take an example, let us look at how the discourse around federalism was framed. When the Interim Constitution was amended to include federalism, the notion behind it was very clear. It was born out of the Madhes movement and supported by janajati activists. The Bahun-Chettri-dominated Girija Prasad Koirala government resisted the movement for as long as they could, killing almost 50 protestors, more than twice the number martyred by the tyrant Gyanendra. Clearly then, when federalism was promised to allay the protestors, it was an ethnicity-based federalism that was envisioned. But as years passed and conferences dominated by the same traditional elite were held, federalism gradually came to be understood more as decentralisation rather than devolution of power. The media started portraying the debate as between ‘ekal jatiya’ and ‘bahu jaitya’, ‘single identity’ and ‘multiple identity’ federalism, clearly implying that the federal units would be discriminatory against members of other ethnicities.

With the narrative under their control, it became increasingly difficult for parties championing ethnic federalism to reach out to voters with the issue. On the other hand, the traditional parties advocated for both ethnicity and non-ethnicity-based federalism, depending on the community the voters belonged to. By having Madhesi and janajati candidates, they signaled that they were willing to accept the demands of ethnic activists but, on the other hand, sent mixed signals to Pahadi communities. In this way, they managed to garner votes from both supporters and opponents of ethnic federalism. Opponents of ethnic federalism also voted en bloc, either for NC or UML depending on which party looked stronger in the given constituency.  

When the results of the elections were tallied, supporters of ethnic federalism were clearly rattled, even as the UCPN (Maoist) cried foul. In trying to make sense of the defeat, many are now reconsidering the entire ethnic agenda. There are reports that a certain segment of the UCPN (Maoist) now believes that it was a mistake to advocate for identity-based federalism, and not just a tactical mistake at that but an ideological one. If that is true, it is indeed unfortunate. As for the Madhesi parties, since their very raison d’être is ethnic federalism, they cannot rescind from their agenda. Still, their zeal in pushing the agenda can be measured by their inability to coalesce around it.

A sense of purpose

Despite all this, it would be stupid to think that the ethnic agenda has been successfully tamed because the CA is but one forum where people’s aspirations are expressed. Both the UCPN (Maoist) and the Madhesi parties are very clear that they will resort to the streets if any attempt is made by the traditional parties to forego ethnic federalism. Not only would this provide the former with a clear sense of purpose but it would also reenergise their base.

For now though, these are lean times for those who had hoped for a radical transformation of the state and advocated for ethnic federalism. Civil society leaders and commentators have routinely voiced their disappointment over the acts of the government and the overtures of the traditional parties, such as the UML’s edict to its CA members to be dressed in daura suruwal during oath taking. The lack of inclusiveness or

youth in the Cabinet has failed to inspire optimism among even the supporters of NC and UML. If this nation is on autopilot, as a prominent commentator recently put it, then by all appearances it looks as if the direction we are headed towards is backwards, not forward.

Jha has worked for various international and national organisations supporting

the peace process in Nepal and can be reached at DAULAT JHA @daulatjha