In the last major poll, Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies are forecast to win 38 percent of votes, news channel CNN-IBN and Lokniti at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies said.

Another private news channel NDVT forecast a 32.9 percent vote share for the BJP and its alliance partners.

A BJP victory could have repercussions for Indian foreign policy. Aides of Modi, a Hindu nationalist, have said that if he becomes prime minister India will take a tougher line in territorial disputes with China and in its old rivalry with Pakistan.

The last phase of voting will end on May 12 and results are due on May 16.

The CNN-IBN and Lokniti poll gave 234 to 246 seats to the BJP combine — the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), while NDTV has forecast 259 seats for the NDA.

The ruling Congress-led United Progress Alliance (UPA) is expected to win 28 percent of votes, entitling them to between 111 and 123 seats, according to the CNN-IBN and Lokniti poll. The NDTV survey gives Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's UPA 26.9 percent of votes, resulting in 123 seats in parliament.

The forecasts bring the NDA within striking distance of forming the next government by reaching the halfway mark of 272 in 543 parliamentary constituencies.

Both surveys covered more than 300 constituencies. While the NDTV poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percent, the CNN-IBN and Lokniti survey does not cite a margin of error for its results.

Modi, who has presided over rapid economic growth during more than 12 years as the chief minister of Gujarat state, has been wooing voters by pointing to his track record as a leader who cuts red tape and attracts investment.

Singh's government has been hampered by its economic record, particularly its failure to tackle rising prices and falling economic growth.

India's retail inflation has remained near 10 percent for the last three years, mainly driven by higher food prices. Growth has struggled at a decade-low of nearly 5 percent.

But Modi's image remains tarnished by communal riots in Gujarat 12 years ago when more than 1,000 people were killed, most of them Muslims.

 

India poised for mammoth vote

India's 815 million voters are set to inflict a resounding defeat on the ruling Congress party, led by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, surveys show, after the longest economic slowdown since the 1980s put the brakes on development and job creation in a country where half of the population is under 25 years old.

Despite misgivings among many Indians about his handling of religious riots in 2002, Narendra Modi, the prime ministerial candidate of the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has dominated a lengthy, frenetic campaign where parliamentary candidates range from a tech billionaire to a magician.

Voting will take place in nine stages over five weeks, kicking off in two small north-eastern states close to Myanmar, then spreading to the frozen Himalayan plateaus, western deserts and the tropical south before ending on May 12 in India's densely populated northern plains. Results are due on May 16.

Assam, one of the lush but under-developed states where the election begins, is a rare bastion of support for Congress. But even here some villagers are impatient for change, saying they want highways to replace potholed country lanes so they can sell their crops and fish to markets across India.

"We have had some development but the pace is not fast enough. We need the next step ahead," said Manaspratim Buragohain in the village of Lezai, on the banks of a tributary of the huge Brahmaputra river and surrounded by paddy fields.

"Our businesses stay small because we need better roads and bridges," said Buragohain, a school teacher.

"VERY SAVVY" CAMPAIGN

Modi, three-times chief minister of the western state of Gujarat, has run a high-octane campaign, with many rallies even in the south and north-east where the BJP is traditionally weak.

Across India, Modi - who will run for the holy Hindu city of Varanasi - has vowed to revive a $1 trillion infrastructure program, create jobs and help an ambitious, growing middle class whose economic success has sputtered in recent years.

"The Modi message has been very savvy," said Milan Vaishnav of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

"He's pitching at the Indian middle class - people who are on $4-10 a day, people who were until recently poor but now can afford consumer goods. Even the poorest people, those below that group, want some of that," said Vaishnav, an India expert.

While Modi has cut red tape and overseen a period of high growth in Gujarat, details of his policy plans, or "Modinomics", on the national scale remain sketchy. The BJP is due to release its delayed manifesto after voting starts on Monday.

The BJP and its allies are forecast to win the biggest chunk of the 543 parliamentary seats up for grabs but fall up to 38 seats short of a majority, according to an opinion poll released this week by CSDS, a respected Indian polling group.

The debate in New Delhi is focused on whether Modi can secure a stable-enough coalition to push through his agenda.

However, Indian elections are notoriously hard to call. Opinion polls in 2004 incorrectly predicted victory for a BJP-led alliance campaigning on its economic record. The centre-left Congress instead swept to power to expand welfare schemes.

Congress, now dogged by public anger over the economic slowdown and corruption after a decade in power, is forecast to get around half of the BJP's tally. The Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has in recent months lost much of its traditional ability to rouse voters, with many unimpressed by its scion Rahul Gandhi.

TOUGH JOB

India's next prime minister will face a tough job reviving an economy plagued by high inflation and a wide fiscal deficit. Other challenges include defining India's role in a tense neighborhood marked by border disputes with Pakistan and China.

The three countries are jockeying for position in Afghanistan, which held elections on Saturday, as Western troops withdraw from the war-battered nation.

Critics say Modi represents only India's Hindu majority and failed to stop or even allowed communal riots in 2002 in Gujarat, in which at least 1,000 people died, most of them Muslims. He has always denied the accusations and a Supreme Court inquiry found no evidence to prosecute him.

"India's uniqueness is its unity amongst diversity," Paban Singh Ghatowar, the Congress candidate for the constituency that contains Lezai village and a junior cabinet minister, told Reuters. " represents one line of thinking. He does not represent the diversity of India."