When four major parties announced a six-state model of federalism with a province incorporating eight districts from Saptari to Parsa, many thought people in the eastern Tarai districts will oppose it.

However, a month later, eastern districts are relatively calm while dissent is growing in central Tarai, the stronghold of the three major parties. Analysts say this scenario not only shows the growing support for agendas of the agitating Madhes-based parties but also their penetration into the major parties’ constituencies.

“Scenario on the ground is completely different as the protest is receiving phenomenal support from cadres of the major parties. This is happening because agendas raised by Madhesi parties are genuine,” said Chandra Kishore Jha, a journalist who closely follows Madhesi politics.

Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, a coalition of Madhes-based parties, is at the frontline while two separate fronts led by Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar and Matrika Yadav have also followed suite, demanding extension of the proposed Province 2 upto Jhapa in the east, formation of a separate Tharuhat province in western Tarai and major changes in provisions related to citizenship and electoral system in the draft statute.

Twelve people—five in Parsa, four in Rupendehi and one each in Saptari and Bara—have died so far in the ongoing protests.

Madhesi leaders and analysts say the agitating parties are likely gain additional support from people in major parties’ constituencies in central Tarai as it is locals who will benefit the most if the ongoing protests are successful.

“When the number of constituencies increased in Madhesi districts, major parties were the first to benefit,” said Jha, adding that the success of the agitating Madhes-based parties’ current protest now is inevitably intertwined to the support they gain from the major parties’ constituencies.

This scenario, according to Jha, has forced local leaders of major parties to come in support of the ongoing protests. “Even elected representatives of major parties are telling local FMs that they are also in protest while maintaining grave silence in Kathmandu,” he said.

In the eastern Tarai districts, however, agitating parties have not been able to gather expected support. One of the reasons behind this, according to leaders, is low turnout of indigenous Santhal and Rajbanshi communities. “There is relatively lower level of political awareness among people of eastern districts compared to those in central Tarai. Moreover, Madhesi communities have larger presence alongside the highway in the central Tarai. Larger presence of media has also made it easy to notice the protests,” said Tula Narayan Shah, a Madhesi activist.

Morcha leaders said they will receive overwhelming support from people irrespective of political affiliation. “Major parties’ decision to move ahead without addressing our demands has further angered common people. They will not remain silent unless their rights are guaranteed in the new constitution,” said Upendra Yadav, chairman of Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal.

Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Chairman Mahanta Thakur said the ongoing protest is not just Morcha’s but of all Madhesi people as it is linked with their future. “We are receiving support from all people irrespective of their political affiliations,” he said.