We have heard countless number of times that the nation will now tread a path towards economic prosperity. But with the devastating earthquakes, coupled with the Tarai unrest and the unofficial Indian blockade, the nation has faced a major setback. Not only is Nepal bound to face a negative growth rate for the first time in 33 years, we are in the midst of a severe humanitarian crisis.

Despite being aware that many earthquake survivors are still in the dire need of shelter and warm clothes as the winter sets in, the government took eight months, following the quake, to form the much awaited Reconstruction Authority. Let’s not forget that the disaster has pushed some 7,00,000 people below the poverty line and destroyed over half a million homes. Now, the Tarai unrest and the unofficial embargo have resulted in a severe shortage of essentials goods, leaving the most vulnerable in the society to fend for themselves.

Despite billions being pledged for reconstruction and rehabilitation, major parties could do no further than to entrust their close aides to run for process in hopes of expanding their political clout at the ground level. Not a single penny of the billions handed over to the government has actually been spent on the quake survivors. If that was not enough, the government still seems to have no clue on solving the Tarai crisis and easing supplies through the border. Even though the government says it hopes that cross-border trade will resume soon, the Madhes-based agitating parties have recently said that they will intensify their blockade at the border. And to add, the agitating leaders have made plans to leave the Valley to ramp up protests, leaving talks with the government in limbo.

Economic losses

Following the prolonged protests that have claimed at least 50 lives since August, economic activities have heavily shrunk in this already impoverished nation. The acute shortage of petroleum products has had deep impacts on the daily life of people, the lack of fuel and construction materials have halted all development activities, capital expenditure has fallen to new lows, revenue collection has been hit hard and the trade flow disrupted.

Since construction work has not gained pace, the government has so far been able to spend only around Rs 6 billion—that is just 2.8 percent—of the funds allocated for development activities this fiscal year. Instead of spending capital on activities that could encourage the private sector, the low public spending is likely to take a heavy toll onemployment generation as well. 

With this air of uncertainty, both foreign and domestic investors will no longer have the confidence to invest, likely pushing the country back three to four years. At a time when we should be looking forward to exploit our hydropower potential to reduce our dependency on India for petroleum products, we are witnessing almost half a day of power cuts.

In the agricultural sector, where almost 80pc of farmers live under the line of poverty, output has shrunk because of the low import of chemical fertilisers and the weak monsoon we had this year.  The on-going 

disruption of life in the Tarai, known as the ‘rice bowl’ of the country, will also have an adverse impact on the overall output.

As India, our largest trade partner, continues to suffocate us, the cost of some of the basic food staples such as rice, lentils, sugar, salt, and cooking oil have soared in recent weeks. With an overall double-digit inflation, price of food items have gone up by 12pc. Price of directly imported goods such as lentils have gone up 44pc and cooking oil is dearer by 41pc. Overall exports went down 25.4 pc in the first three months this fiscal year while merchandise imports plunged 31.9 pc.

These strikes have also led to the closure of about 2,200 industries, leading to over 2,00,000 workers losing their jobs. For the tourism sector, the number of arrivals has plummeted by some 46pc this year, leaving hotels running only on 20pc of their full capacity. 

Our economy has overall suffered a loss of nearly Rs 250 billion in the past few months, and yet the government chooses to be a spectator as it tries to wash its hand off the 

situation by blaming it on the opposition, the disgruntled forces and the southern bloc. 

Humanitarian crisis

As the quake victims fight for survival, the border blockade has only worsened their conditions. The fuel shortage has hampered relief and rehabilitation efforts, and supply of essentials has been delayed. Donor agencies say they can only deliver a third of the food supplies earmarked for distribution this year and that shelter materials for winter have also faceddelivery difficulties. 

The people have not gotten their hands on the cash relief or the winter relief pledged by the government. With the sharp rise in food commodities in the worst-hit areas, especially at a time when they find it difficult to manage two square meals a day, winter will most certainly beexcruciatingly long for these victims. 

Apart from the growing concern on the humanitarian impact thewinter could have in quake-affected areas, reduced access to quality healthcare services and treatment has already affected the most vulnerable. Essential supplies in hospital and healthcare facilities have depleted by around 50pc.

According to UNICEF, children under the age of five are at most risk due to the blockade. With no life-saving medicines and vaccines, and with the risks of malnutrition and hypothermia, this lethal combination could very well lead to a massive loss of lives. 

Overdue resolution

As voices from everywhere continue to raise concerns about the current situation, it is absurd that a handful of leaders, who claim to represent us, opt to ignore the suffering of the public. It is high time that the citizens realised that the country cannot be held hostage by a few obstinate ones.

Unless the government, the opposition and the agitating forces sit for talks with a give-and-take approach, and until weramp up our diplomatic efforts to convince our southern neighbour, we are likely to begin another year with no foreseeableprosperity in sight.