The last few weeks have witnessed some major turmoil in Nepal’s political corridors. A few notable incidents—rumours of a change in the government, Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s slightly desperate attempt to replace KP Oli as the prime minister, the unification of ten Maoist parties and the Federal Alliance (comprising of some of the Madhesi and Janajati parties) picketing the apex administrative hub of the government at Singha Durbar and the Prime Minister’s official residence at Baluwatar—signal that the country is once again creeping towards politics of uncertainty and fear.

Skeptical society

Following the change of guard in the Nepali Congress leadership this March, what Sher Bahadur Deuba would do next—topple the government and replace Oli by himself or play a responsible role as the opposition—became a topic of discussion among politically-affiliated cadres, party leaders, analysts and media persons in general. Naturally, that debate gathered traction once Deuba was elected the Parliamentary Party leader of the NC, the largest party in the Parliament, as well (PP leader is the official prime ministerial candidate of the NC). Deuba then publicly insisted that the Nepali Congress would continue to remain in opposition to maintain check and balance of the government and take a lead with the implementation of the new constitution.

But when Deuba travelled to India for a nose operation and treatment of his wife, observers were quick to question his true intentions, claiming he was there to garner support to topple the government. Maybe it was his past history of ‘playing’ a number games at the Parliament or just the general society’s mistrust of political leaders, Deuba was quickly accused of trying to stop the UML from presenting its budget and some went as far as to label him as ‘India’s Yes man’.

Before jumping into conclusions, these politically motivated allegations missed out on two points: first, the Indian government as a protocol would invite Deuba, being the head of the largest party in the country, for genuine talks if he was visiting the country, and second, if the main opposition felt that the government was underperforming they would naturally exercise the democratic system of numbers at the Parliament to seek an alternative.

Prachanda on the prowl

This brings us to the rather interesting fact that Maoist leader Dahal’s role in attempting to bring down the Oli government did not get much limelight. 

Dahal, for all that he has witnessed in the past two decades, has managed to get a taste of what it feels like to be the most powerful person in the country, but he also faces the lowest point of his political journey at present. The supreme commander of the war that brought about massive changes in country, Dahal was seen as an agent of change when he joined mainstream politics. Maoists swept the first Constituent Assembly elections and Dahal reached the pinnacle and ascended to be the executive head of state. But things took a downward turn thereafter. The Katuwal fiasco ultimately led to his resignation as accusations of a ‘undignified’ integration of the Maoist soldiers into the national army, charges of massive mismanagement of funds allotted to the Maoist cantonments, instigating communal disharmony by attempting to divide the country along ethnic lines backfired at the Maoists. They further suffered a humiliating loss in the second CA elections. Dahal even went on to lose elections from a constituency in Kathmandu, an epitome of how the public judged the Maoist leader. Mohan Baidhya had already parted ways with differing views, and Baburam Bhattarai, the ideologue of the Maoist insurgency, also moved away to form a new party following the promulgation of the new constitution. 

Dahal has since went on a soul searching mission to get his party on track and, should the chance arise, lead the government once again. In other words, stay relevant in present day politics. In fact, it was Dahal who began publicly toying with the idea of a ‘national consensus government’ right before the NC’s general convention. Recently, Maoist leader Krishna Bahadur Mahara, considered to be the right hand of the party chief, visited the southern neighbour the same time as Deuba. It was widely believed that this was when Dahal put forth a concrete plan of toppling the present government. Once both returned to Nepal, the puzzle naturally fit into place and the Maoist announced that they were withdrawing their support to the government—initiating talks to form a national government under their leadership. Dahal licked his lips at the possibility of being the prime minister.

Anticlimax

But what went on in Dahal’s head overnight that the next day he continued to support UML’s government remains a mystery. Some possibilities include that he was fearful that Deuba would try to form a government under his own leadership once Dahal retracted from the government. But Dahal here failed to grasp the overall scenario. NC and UML, the first and second largest party, were very unlikely to join hands to form a government, something that miserably failed when UML asked NC to support Oli. That left the Maoists as the minority, but a significant, player in any government that would be formed next. Second, maybe Dahal felt the need to give more importance to the unification of splinter communist forces at the moment. He was well aware that he would have been accused to be India-aligned had he formed a government with the NC and the Madhesi forces. That could have well halted the unification process as some of the communist parties have been pushing to call India an expansionist force in their new political document. Third, maybe at a time when war-era cases are once again being brought to the fore, Dahal felt that it was wiser to support the Oli-led government and stick to power for now. Since UML have been considered more conservative in the transitional process, Dahal could have possibly used the government-toppling weapon as a bargaining chip to push ahead with the process. Maybe the fear of the slightest possibility of going behind bars took over. Lastly, it could have well been just a ploy to have a bigger say in the budget that the government will be unveiling this month. Whatever the reasons, the former Maoist commander has once again been successful in shaking political corridors.