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EU referendum: BBC forecasts UK vote to leave
The UK has voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union after 43 years in an historic referendum, a BBC forecast suggests.BBC
The UK has voted by 52% to 48% to leave the European Union after 43 years in an historic referendum, a BBC forecast suggests.
London and Scotland voted strongly to stay in the EU but the remain vote has been undermined by poor results in the north of England.
Voters in Wales and the English shires have backed Brexit in large numbers.
The pound fell to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985 as the markets reacted to the results.
Referendum turnout was higher than at last year's general election.
Labour's Shadow chancellor John McDonnell said the Bank of England may have to intervene to shore up the pound, which lost 3% within moments of the first result showing a strong result for Leave in Sunderland and fell as much as 6.5% against the euro.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage - who has campaigned for the past 20 years for Britain to leave the EU - told supporters "this will be a victory for ordinary people, for decent people".
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The UK's EU referendum is proving close but the Remain campaign appears to be failing to pick up enough support outside London to win.
At 03:45 BST Leave were ahead by over 500,000 votes, with the English shires and Wales voting strongly for Brexit.
UKIP's Nigel Farage said: "Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom."
The pound surged as polls closed before falling to its lowest level since 1985, on signs of a Leave victory.
Scotland and Northern Ireland appear to have opted for Remain and London has voted emphatically to stay in the EU.
Unlike at a general election the results in individual areas do not count - it is the overall number of votes cast for one side or the other across the country that will determine whether the UK leaves the European Union.
Polling expert Prof John Curtice said there was still a while to go but at this stage Leave were "undoubtedly the favourites" to win the referendum. He estimates that the finishing post for one side to win is 16,813,000 votes.
UKIP leader Nigel Farage, who at the start of the night predicted that Remain might "edge" a win, told supporters: "Dare to dream that the dawn is breaking on an independent United Kingdom."
At a Brexit party, he told supporters: "If the predictions are right, this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, and a victory for decent people."
"Let June 23 go down in our history as our independence day."
He also suggested the prime minister should resign "immediately" if the UK votes to leave the EU.
Conservative Remain campaigner Justine Greening told the BBC: "It's way too early in the night to be calling it one way or another" but Labour's Chuka Umunna said, looking at the results so far "it's not looking promising for Remain".
Jenny Watson, the Electoral Commission's chief counting officer, will announce the referendum result at Manchester Town Hall after all 382 local totals have been certified and declared.
According to Prof Curtice, the Remain vote is about 10% short of what was expected in north-east England and although Remain is ahead in Scotland, turnout is lower than in the rest of the UK.
Wales appears to be backing Brexit, with a vote of 54.7% for Leave so far.
Northern Ireland appears to be voting in favour of Remain.
Results are starting to come in from the Midlands, Yorkshire and Humber or London and South East of England, where voting was disrupted by flash flooding.
An online survey taken on polling day of 5,000 people by YouGov suggested the Remain side running at 52% of the vote, to Leave's 48%. Ipsos Mori have released polling from Thursday and Wednesday suggesting Remain will get 54% and Leave 46%.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband, who backed a Remain vote, said: "It's a nation divided and the PM will have a big responsibility - particularly if it's a Remain win - to show he understands what people are saying on the Leave side of the argument. Labour faces that responsibility too."