An uphill task of accommodating diverse interests stare at the governing CPN (Maoist Centre) and Nepali Congress as they look to redraw federal boundaries to bring the disgruntled parties on board without minimising the influence that the top leaders of major parties hold in the existing federal setup.  

The government may have to alter the map of up to four provinces to address the grievances of the agitating communities, including Madhesi and Tharu. According to interlocutors, the government and Madhesi parties have reached an informal understanding to carve a province in the western plains, while they explore options to end the row over the so-called five disputed districts—Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Kailali and Kanchanpur.

But a section of both the ruling parties and the main opposition UML are unlikely to support such alterations given the numerical advantages they hold over the current federal setup and subsequent backlash they fear they might face in their constituencies.

Some influential leaders from across the party line have already warned of stern protest against the proposed changes in the boundaries. On Sunday, seven parliamentarians representing Province 5 warned against any changes in demarcation after Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal pledged to form a Tharuhat province from Nawalparasi to Bardiya during an informal negotiation with Madhes-based parties.

According to the proposal, the hill districts of Province 5 will be realigned with hill-dominated Province 4 and Province 6. The government is likely to face even bigger resistance in the Farwest and the East where senior leaders, irrespective of party line, are championing the cause of regional and ethic politics to secure the long-term electoral interests.

Madhesi parties have been demanding an expansion of Province 2 further east. They want to include Tharu strongholds of Kailali and Kanchanpur in the Tharuhat/Tharuwan province. But Madhesi leaders believe that top leaders of the ruling parties themselves are against the revision.

Top leaders, including NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML Vice-chairman Bhim Rawal and Maoist leader Lekh Raj Bhatta, are against meeting Tharu groups’ demand to establish a united Tharuhat from Nawalparasi to Kanchanpur.

In an all-party meeting held earlier this month, Rawal had warned against revising boundaries without justifying its significance arguing that it could ignite protest elsewhere in the region.

At a press conference held days after the Kailali carnage that claimed the lives of nine security officials and a toddler last year, Deuba promised to ensure “all political and cultural rights together with special rights” to the Tharu community but rejected the idea of united Tharuhat province. But in a change of tack, Deuba has promised to end grievances of the Tharus

but has not offered anything so far.

“The problem is he [Deuba] never says no. But he

seems unwilling to offer anything either,” Chairman of Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party Mahanta Thakur

told the Post, when asked whether Deuba’s harsh position was causing delay in negotiations.   

Tharu groups have been protesting against a forced integration of Tharu strongholds of Kailali and Kanchanpur in Province 7, arguing that the proposition of United Farwest, the premise on which the province was carved, seek to disenfranchise the Tharu community. Kailali was the epicentre of last year’s protest that claimed the lives of more than 50 people in the plains.

Despite the fact that they account for 6.6 percent of the country’s total population, the pocket areas of the indigenous Tharus communities have been split into five provinces.

Although the NC’s official position on integration of Kailali and Kanchanpur remains unclear, Deuba, who won from Kailali and Dadheldhura constituencies, has vehemently rejected the demand. The Congress chief risks losing support in both the constituencies if he deviates from the stance of a United Farwest. Besides losing the support in Dadeldhura, Deuba also risk losing Pahadi support base in Kailali if he supports the demand. UML’s Rawal, who has properties both in the hills and plains in his constituencies, faces the same fate.

In the East, leaders from Province 1, including UML Chairman KP Sharma Oli and NC leader Krishna Prasad Sitaula, have repeatedly ruled out possibilities of integrating parts of Morang and Sunsari into Province 2. While he was still in charge of the government, former PM Oli had refused to integrate even an inch of land from Province 1 to Province 2.

Even as the formation of a Tharuhat province from Nawalparasi to Kailali remains at the heart of the ongoing negotiation between the government and the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, the proposal is likely to be heavily contested.

Soon after PM Dahal floated the proposal to carve

a plain-only province from Nawalparasi to Bardiya,

several lawmakers representing Province 5 including

Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, deputy Parliamentary Party

leader of the ruling CPN (Maoist Center), alongwith six other parliamentarians, threatened to protest against the move.

“Revising the current boundaries will ignite protest both in the hills and plains. The current boundaries should not be altered at any cost,” Rayamajhi told Parliament on Sunday.  

If that happens, the hill districts will have to be merged with the hill Province 4 and Province 6. Rayamajhi, who was elected from Arghakanchi and sees himself as a key face in Province 5, will have to compete with political heavyweight like NC senior leader Ram Chandra Poudel, among others, if his district is merged with Province 4.