Nepal’s geopolitical significance in and beyond the South Asian region can be viewed from two focal dimensions—one, Tibet of China, and, two, the Himalaya as the boundary marking India’s physical security. Successive visits to Kathmandu by delegations from China, India and the US reveal that Nepal’s significance has grown for regional stability over the past two decades. Current Nepali politics revolves around the subject of implementation of and amendment to the constitution. The political standoff has had a direct effect on economic enhancement, democracy, stability and prosperity. The transformation into secularism, federalism and republicanism is believed to have been done in a rush. 

Probability of local elections

The Prachanda-led government was formed with the support of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Madhesi political alliance with a mandate to amend the constitution by addressing the grievances of Madhesis and Janajatis and demands for a second province in the Tarai besides three other demands related to citizenship, representation in the Upper House and recognition of languages spoken in different parts of the country. The amendment bill has little chance of being passed as it is not likely to be supported by a two-thirds majority.

Local, provincial and parliamentary elections have to be conducted by January 2018. The Madhesis want the boundaries of some provinces to be realigned to bring the scattered Madhesi population into one cluster. The opposition CPN-UML does not wish to accommodate Madhesi demands, especially the realignment of state borders, while there are strong constituencies in the NC that oppose the amendments. The Maoists feel that addressing Madhesi demands will help them to regain their lost constituencies. Madhesi parties insist that they will not agree to holding local elections until the constitution is amended. New issues have prompted the federal government to conduct local elections. The question now is whether they will be held.  

During the first Constituent Assembly (CA) election, the Maoists emerged as the largest party with 38.1 percent of the votes. The NC and the UML secured 19 percent and 18 percent respectively, various Madhesi parties secured a combined 14 percent and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) received 2 percent of the votes. During the second CA election, the Maoists won 149 fewer seats. The NC got 81 more seats, the UML 67 more seats and the RPP 25 more seats while Madhes-based parties got 43 seats less. 

Hill elites, Bahun and Chhetri ruling classes, Madhesis, extremist Madhesis, Janajatis and monarchists are commonly used categories. You can hear political leaders use these terms constantly, and they also appear in the Indian media frequently. This shows that it is just a matter of time before not only the land but also the philosophy of a proud Nepali is lost. Polarisation among political parties is not based on ideology but on attaining and remaining in power. This can be observed in the Maoists joining forces with the NC, and more recently the RPP joining government under Prachanda who is a staunch believer in a federal republic. There is ample evidence of religious polarisation sponsored by religious organisations and supported by political parties.

Dire consequences

Peaceful demonstrations are appropriate in a democracy, but they also have to be managed professionally by law enforcement agencies. Without efficient handling, there will be undesirable consequences as was observed recently in Saptari where five deaths occurred. Moreover, the drama surrounding the appointment of the chief of the Nepal Police has weakened the morale of police personnel. The chain of command becomes meaningless. If the agitation declared by the Madhes-based parties is not managed well and the law and order situation goes out of control, there will be no option but to deploy the Army. The application of peace through strength is generally a 

concept of deterrence, but it does not hold true all the time. It appears that the agitating Madhes-based parties have three choices open to them—one, become a strong regional party; two, join one of the mainstream political parties; and three, join an ultra-Madhesi outfit. 

There are sufficient indications that local elections will not be held on May 14 as scheduled, which will invite the replacement of the government. Pressure to hold federal elections will come up as a priority, if not, the country will shift to general election demands to enlarge the constituencies in the Tarai. When religious organisations become actively engaged in religious conversion, this may lead to 

religious intolerance. The scenario that is emerging—severance of the hills from the plains and widening rifts between the Chhetri and Brahmin elite or Pahadis and Madhesis—has to be addressed by truth so that there is convergence.Otherwise polarisation will invite ethnic clashes and boost secessionist movements. Deploying the Army in the Tarai will lead to another adversity if the agitation is not well managed. This will provide one more reason for Madhesi extremists to intensify their agitation. 

The solution is simple even though the problem seems to be complicated and multifaceted: Go to the people. This is the most democratic process that everybody agrees with, like the referendum on Brexit in the UK. If the people are not allowed to make a decision, the coming year is going to be a year of heavy consequences amid a prolonged period of political, security and economic stress. Nationalism will build up, outside interference and ultra-forces taking advantage of weakness will rise and barriers will resurface.

Basnyat is a political and security analyst and a retired Army Major General