Pressure is building on the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha (SLMM), whose protests in the Tarai for the last four months now are receiving criticism more than praise. And signs of building pressure are getting clearer.

The SLMM, which had earlier outright rejected the government proposal on redrawing provincial boundaries through a mechanism in three months, has indicated that it could accept a cross-party committee for the purpose. It has, however, set two riders: A certain timeframe must be set for such a mechanism and there should be assurance that the recommendation(s) made by the mechanism will be implemented. 

Even with the preconditions, leaders say there is the likelihood of an agreement on government’s four-point proposal. What the Morcha now wants is “clarity and assurances” on the Terms of References (ToR) of the proposed cross-party mechanism.

SLMM leaders have said that the proposed mechanism should finish its work in 15-30 days, instead of three months that the government has proposed. 

The main opposition Nepali Congress and government coalition partner UCPN (M) though are ready to do so, the ruling CPN- UML has said it will be meaningless to allocate less time (15-30 days) now and extending it later. 

Leaders from the SLMM, two major parties in the government and the main opposition say a meeting point on time period for the mechanism can be worked out. 

The SLMM’s call for assurances “that the recommendation(s) made by the mechanism must be implemented” is related to “political legitimacy” of the mechanism. 

If the mechanism fails to have “political legitimacy”, the SLMM fears there will be no guarantee of its recommendation(s) being implemented. Or in worst-case scenario, the Morcha fears, there will be no agreement at all within the time period set for the mechanism, given the hardened positions taken by the major parties. When it comes to redrawing provincial boundaries, only the UCPN (M) so far has been positive. The NC and UML do not seem to be very keen to revisit the current boundaries under the seven-state federal set-up.

Here is where SLMM leaders are hemming and hawing around; they have not been able to decide whether to withdraw their protests or continue with them. 

Regarding “political legitimacy” of the mechanism, the NC has already proposed setting up a parliamentary committee instead of a cross-party committee. But the UML has said the move to set up a parliamentary panel will carry with it some complications, as disputes could arise over who all will represent. UML leader Pradeep Gyawali, however, has said his party is not against forming a parliamentary panel if it could give a way out to current crisis. 

Yet another concern that is plaguing the SLMM is whether the cross-party mechanism will work on redrawing boundaries of all Tarai districts or only five districts that have remained “disputed” in terms of boundaries. Besides, SLMM leaders have long been seeking a commitment from parties for two provinces in the Tarai.

The SLMM, an alliance of four Madhes-based parties, is also under pressure from India to accept the proposal of forming a cross-party mechanism. 

Besides, there is a clear trust deficit between the SLMM and Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. “We do not have much trust in PM Oli, so NC President Sushil Koirala and UCPN (M) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal should guarantee that there will be two provinces in Madhes and that issues will be settled within a certain period of time,” said SLMM leaders who have been engaged in extensive talks with Dahal and Koirala of late.

“There is a trust deficit between two sides. The SLMM should trust the three parties,” said Gyawali. 

On Saturday, UCPN (M) Chairman said that there will be a deal with SLMM on constituency delineation on the basis of population and inclusive representation.

•     Clarity and assurances on the Terms of References (ToR) of the proposed cross-party mechanism
•     Political legitimacy of the cross-party mechanism
•     Giving the mechanism 15-30 days instead of three months
•     Whether the cross-party mechanism will work on redrawing boundaries of all Tarai districts or only five ‘disputed’ districts 
•     Commitment from major parties for two provinces in the Tarai
•     Trust deficit between SLMM leaders and PM KP Sharma Oli