Opinion
The Modi blues
Indian prime minister wants to establish a new hegemony of Hindu nationalistsHari Roka
Narendra Damodar Das Modi came to power two years ago with an overwhelming majority, prompting some to say that his rise meant the rise of India. Their argument was inspired by the continuous economic growth rate of Gujarat when Modi was its chief minister from 2001 to 2014. When Modi, a leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), replaced Man Mohan Singh, some of his lieutenants were comparing him with the late Chinese paramount leader Deng Xiaoping. They thought that Modi would turn India into a technological and economic superpower within a decade.
Neo-liberal Gujarati model
In the early 1990s, the ruling Indian National Congress (INC) abandoned democratic welfarism and adopted a neo-liberal economic policy. The party lost the next election, and the BJP emerged as the largest party and became involved in the central governance procedure. Hindu nationalism is the basic philosophy of the BJP. The party aimed to establish Hindu hegemony or a hierarchical system in the country when it attained power instead of a secularism-based democratic electoral system. Its economic philosophy was based on local labour and raw materials. Thus it was against openness or liberalisation and the globalisation philosophy. When the BJP attained power, it could not reverse the reform started by the Congress. The BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee was no different from the Congress during its six-year term. It was unable to sell Hindutva to a larger audience, particularly those who were highly influenced by the wave of globalisation and liberalisation.
Gujarat is one of the richest states in India. The people have an historically good working culture and the state contains abundant mineral resources and fertile agricultural land. It is thought that nationalism and neo-liberal globalisation can never mix. But most rightwing parties in the world are still trying to blend these two elements. Modi is one of them. He used the state machinery to create a Gujarati model of economy favouring the so-called middle class. This model was a cocktail of Hindu fundamentalism and neoliberal corporatism. He did not provide any political or ideological space to his rivals or competitors within party. The Godhara massacre in 2002 was enough to create political terror and a culture of fear. In such a situation, no party could compete with him.
In the second phase, he and his clique set up popular imagination with the help of Hindutva penetrating civil society. Within this unilateralism, Modi’s state government focused on improving macroeconomic performance. In the third stage, he avoided confusion between nationalism and liberalism-based globalisation. Modi was seen by the aspiring middle class as a facilitator. The middle class-dominated government removed the panic of capitalist investors. India’s big business icons such as Tata, Ambanis, Zindal and other big houses invested there in new projects. Foreign direct investment (FDI) poured in due to low taxation, easy movement of capital and profits and labour commodification (the rule of hire and fire). Gujarat soon transformed into corporate Gujarat.
The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government at the centre took a right turn during its second term. The global recession of 2008-09 impacted export-led growth, and soaring oil prices pushed inflation into the double digits. The dollar appreciated on reports of a US recovery and rising interest rates. This led to hedge funds and capital flight, and the Indian rupee fell sharply. At the same time, corruption scandals were being exposed. The Anna Hazare movement against corruption erupted, and the Congress-led UPA was politically and socially tainted. Narendra Modi became a rightwing alternative because the leftist and centrists both had a bad name at the time.
Politics of absolutism
For the past several months, Indian newspapers have been claiming that India is the fastest growing large economy in the world. Modi has launched various initiatives for economic development. He travels a lot to attract FDI and NRI and bilateral and multilateral investment. Estimates put India’s growth rate in 2015-16 at seven to eight percent. But savings and investment ratios have dropped sharply to around 30 percent. Export growth has declined. More surprisingly, import growth has also declined by double digits, indicating a drop in demand. The depreciation of the Indian rupee and increasing current account deficit will create inflation and life will become hard. The present trend of the Indian economy does not show a bright scenario. The manufacturing sector is not growing as expected. The present government wants to cut public investment and social spending, such as education, health, food and nutrition.
The Gujarat model failed within two years in India. India’s central politics is very different from the politics of any particular state. It has to deal with highly rich as well as poor states. It has to address previously disfranchised, disempowered and denigrated communities such as 167 million Dalits, 104 million tribals and around 200 million Muslims. The central government also has to address the aspirations of previously elite castes and religious groups. Now they are demanding reservation in public service employment and educational institutions. The Patil movement in Gujarat, recent Jat Andolan in Haryana and creation of Telangana state were somehow related to hunger, unequal distribution and political and social justice.
Modi-mania has been fast decreasing. The election results in Delhi and Bihar are examples of this trend. Preliminary surveys in six states show that the BJP will lose in the coming election. Therefore, the Modi clique wants fast polarisation of Indian society into Hindu fundamentalists and supporters of secularism. Last year, they forcefully arranged a “Ghar wapasi” movement (back to Hinduism by leaving different religions). This year, this ruling clique is organising a nationalism vs anti-national movement. Modi wants new absolutism, the establishment of a new hegemony of Hindu nationalists in secular India. Polarisation is growing. Is this a new departure point for India?
Roka, a former Constituent Assembly member, is an ex-student of Jawaharlal Nehru University