The Nepali Congress, which began its 13th General Convention on Thursday, will vote to elect its new leadership on Sunday. Until the results are out, it’s a matter of speculations and claims and counter-claims, with the party set for a three-way toss-up.

With two leaders—Ram Chandra Poudel and Krishna Prasad Sitaula—from the establishment faction in the race for the post of party president, the Sher Bahadur Deuba faction has been making claims that Deuba will win easy. But different equations are in play.

To get the party’s top post, a candidate must get at least 51 percent of total votes cast. As many as 3,218 representatives will be voting in the election on Sunday. If there is no clear winner in the first round, the election will enter the second round. Besides the party president, the GC will also elect Central Working Committee members for which there are many aspirants. And here lies the catch. And here is where all presidential hopefuls are making claims.

Leaders say there is a likelihood of cross voting when it comes to choosing leaders for other key positions, as region, clusters, candidates’ clout among party members, personal influence and personality are going to influence the voters.

 With election for all 64 posts set for Sunday, Poudel, Deuba and Sitaula are busy wooing the voters and their focus is on big clusters like Madhesis, Women, Janajatis and regions.

Sitaula, a strong leader from the establishment faction, has his own panel fighting the election, and has made the election a bit complex.

All party presidential hopefuls would do all they can to win the election in the first round, said NC leaders, adding that it is difficult to say who will benefit if the voting enters the second round. What is, however, clear is Sitaula’s candidacy has troubled Poudel no end.

Due to a vertical split in the establishment faction, the Deuba faction appears to be in a comfortable position, but it has not been able to do the math as to how many votes it would lose because of Sitaula panel in the first round.

The Deuba camp, however, has claimed that it will receive the required majority votes in the first round and win.

The Poudel-led panel’s calculation is there will be no clear majority in the first round.

In that case, Sitaula will be out of the race, hence “his votes” will come to Poudel, some leaders claimed.

NC leader Mahesh Acharya said picture is not clear yet. “It is difficult to get results from the first round,” he said.

“Until Saturday, all sides will try to manage the panels and withdraw candidacies for various posts including CWC members. Prediction will be a little easier after that,” said Acharya.