The International Crisis Group (ICG) has urged both government of Nepal and Madhes-based parties to build trust and refrain from taking provocative action, while warning that the implementation of the constitution without addressing the grievances of Madhesi parties “risks wholesale rejection of the constitution”.

“Positions are not irreconcilable, but the prerequisites for any solution–respect, trust, political will, a degree of selflessness–are in short supply,” the Brussels-based organisation said in its fresh report on Nepal released on Monday.

“The deficit is fuelled by ideological struggles to maintain a status quo that challengers say cements discrimination and supporters say protects the country, and by the behaviour of political parties, their lack of internal democracy, factionalism and opportunism,” it said.

The report warns that there is a clear risk of escalation of violence as mainstream parties would be tempted to launch counter protests, “which likewise lead to clashes”-in the event talks failed to resume and Madhesi parties launch another round of protests.

“The security forces are seen as discriminating against Madhesis and using excessive force. Employing them repeatedly to quell local protests fuels anger and radicalisation, could encourage armed Madhesi groups, of which the region has a history, and might also allow a fringe Madhesi secessionist movement to gain traction. While unlikely to be successful or widespread, it would increase the volatility of a complex region,” it said.

The ICG has recommended that the government restore trust with Madhesi and Tharu populations by forming an independent mechanism to investigate the protest-related deaths and avoid a heavy-handed security response during protests; refrain from ultimatums and provocative comments; address the economic and humanitarian consequences of the earthquakes and blockade. It has also urged Madhesi parties to rebuild trust with all social groups which live in the plains; refrain from arbitrary protest strategies, provocative speech and violence. It has also called on India to maintain an open approach to all sides.