The issue of climate change has come to the fore once again with the signing ceremony of the climate agreement set to take place in New York on April 22, when the deadline stated in the Paris Climate Agreement to allow all countries to become party to it expires. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has invited world leaders to come to the UN Headquarters in New York for the function. Nepal is being represented by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Kamal Thapa. 

A 2013 study entitled Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change has revealed that agriculture, hydropower and water-induced disasters are the major sectors that will be affected by climate change. The economic cost of climate change in these sectors could be equivalent to 2-3 percent of the GDP of 2013 by the 2050s. Nepal has set a climate change adaptation plan as its priority. By 2050, Nepal aims to achieve 80 percent electrification, mostly through renewable hydro projects, and reduce fossil fuel dependency by 50 percent. However, in line with the goal of keeping temperature rise within 2 degree Celsius, the Paris Agreement requires parties to declare their intended goals of greenhouse gas emission mitigation strategies, and so adaptation strategies have been given lower priority. Thus it is a crucial issue how Nepal can attract the world’s attention and find resources for adaptation while global climate negotiations are mostly focused on mitigation strategies.

Nepal’s concerns

The Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries last December, is a non-binding agreement unlike the Kyoto Protocol. Yet, countries will have to voluntarily pledge their intended contribution to curb carbon emissions. Secretary-General Ban, who has been actively involved in the climate change negotiations, has urged states to come up with national pledges, also known as Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Nepal has sent its intended contribution to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in February which, among other things, highlights its plans for climate change adaptation and pledges to increase forestation and the use of green energy.

Adaptation is at the core of Nepal’s climate change action. The country adopted a National Framework on Local Adaptation Plans for Action to ensure integration of adaptation and resilience into the planning process from the local to the national levels. For instance, Sloping Agricultural Land Technology has been adopted in hilly regions to protect soil erosion from rain. Likewise, community forestry has been adopted to increase the resilience of communities by fulfilling some of their needs for forest products. Nepal contributes almost nothing to global greenhouse gas emissions as it burns very little fossil fuels such as coal and gas due to lack of industries. Yet, the impact of climate degradation is alarming in the Himalayan country. Uneven rainfall patterns, scattered droughts and melting of Himalayan glaciers are not only threatening agricultural production and livelihoods in the foothills but also affecting the region’s ecosystem. Uneven rainfall patterns have hit the food production cycle as Nepal is mostly dependent on the monsoon. 

So what is Nepal going to gain from the Paris Agreement, especially as it is surrounded by two of the biggest polluters in the world, India and China? States that contribute less to environmental pollution have very little to pledge as their INDC as a mitigating measure. Rather, the world is looking at what pledges the industrialised and big polluters will be making. This will show the seriousness of countries to limit temperature rise and mitigate the effects of climate change.

Ill-matched priorities

Mitigation strategies are global priorities with regard to climate change, but mitigation strategies and adaptation goals don’t have to be mutually exclusive. The major players in climate action are looking at low carbon technologies such as solar and wind energy. Since the strategies are not legally binding, the developed nations that want to expand their economies will burn more gas and coal. So what is going to happen is that they will invest their climate money in mitigation strategies which may help them to continue their drive towards economic development. Perhaps they will invent a new technology that can absorb the carbon in the air. Therefore, the priority Nepal has given to adaptation is ill suited to global strategies. 

The country has been highlighting the issue of adaptation from the very beginning of its involvement in climate action. This was evident at the Paris Conference too. The Nepali team lead by the Minister of Population and Environment lobbied for the establishment of a global goal on adaptation. Nepal’s INDCs that were submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in February also highlights climate change adaptation plans. The country’s policy aims to strengthen the implementation of an environment-friendly local governance framework in villages and municipalities to complement climate change adaptation and promote renewable energy technologies. 

The post-Paris climate negotiations will be focused on setting the priorities of individual countries, which will mostly be concentrated on reducing greenhouse gas emission. Also, financial mechanisms such as the Green Climate Fund which was established to advance the goal of keeping temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius, and which is expected to spend $1 billion annually from 2020, will give priority to countries and projects that promise to act on mitigation. Therefore, Nepal’s chances of attracting international funds seem bleak. It needs to find a way to fit its adaptation priorities into global strategies in order to tap the international resources necessary to act on climate change.  

Shrestha is a fellow of the UN Foundation and a graduate student of global affairs at the University of Baltimore, Maryland, US