The area where a massive landslide forced as many as 113 earthquake-affected households to flee to open grounds since Wednesday afternoon was already marked as high-risk settlements for landslide hazard following the Gorkha Earthquake last year.

Yet, in the last 15 months, the government took very little or no action to relocate the people of Keraunja-1 and other 491 settlements that were deemed at high risk.

“It was predictable. Experts and reports had clearly pointed out the potential risks from landslides to the human settlements living in the quake-affected districts,” said Bishnu Kharel, a disaster resilience specialist with Save the Children. “Many such settlements that are considered vulnerable will be at more risks of landslides in the coming months when rains get intense, particularly in July-August this year,” added Kharel, who is also the vice-chairperson of Disaster Preparedness Network Nepal

In June last year, about two months after the earthquake, a series of big and small landslides triggered by torrential rains swept away 60 houses and exposed as many as 475 houses to risk in wards 1, 3 and 4 in Keraunja in the northern Gorkha.

The District Disaster Relief Committee of Gorkha in May last year had recommended that 22 high-risk settlements in 11 VDCs, including Keraunja of Gorkha, the epicentre of the magnitude 7.8 earthquake, be relocated at the earliest.

Similarly, a rapid assessment carried out by a team of experts from the Department of Mines had identified 492 settlements in 11 quake-affected districts as vulnerable to disasters, particularly landslides. Some of the settlements in villages including Barpak, Laprak, Ghyachowk, Tandrang, Garthumpakha and Amtar in Gorkha, along with settlements from hilly districts in Dhading, Sindhupalchok, Rasuwa and Dolakha were considered for safer locations, according to the government report.

“The rapid assessment carried out soon after the earthquake did not consider the geological point of view, so it did not mention anything about how safe the areas used by the affected families for temporary shelters or rebuilding were,” said Tara Nidhi Bhattarai, a geologist with Tribhuvan University. “It did not tell us about the geological condition of the areas and did not focus on whether the settlements needed relocation,” he added.

Now, the Department of Mines has, however, started detailed study of 11 quake-affected districts to assess the vulnerabilities to various disasters, including landslides, in coordination with the District Disaster Relief Committees. The findings will be shared with the National Reconstruction Authority by the next week.

“Based on the study findings, we will find out the status of the earlier identified settlements considered vulnerable to disasters and work on safety measures,” said an official at the NRA steering committee seeking anonymity. “But, for this monsoon, we don’t have any measures to help the vulnerable settlements. We can only tell them to safer locations in case of heavy rains.”

Shanmukesh Chandra Amatya, former divisional chief at the Landslide Study under the Department of Water-Induced Disasters and Prevention (DWIDP), said the major challenge to deal with water-induced disasters in the past is lack of landslide inventory at national level.

“We don’t have an inventory and hazard mapping of the disasters, and this also goes for the situation after earthquake. Without a proper mapping, it makes it difficult to work on landslide mitigation measures,” said Amatya, who retired last month.