All the efforts of the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Maoist Centre are currently focused on bringing down the government while the CPN-UML is working equally hard to remain in government.

Prime Minister KP Oli spent a few days trying to convince NC leaders to form a new governing coalition which they would head and include the UML. After that failed, he started claiming that replacing the administration at this time was unconstitutional. It is perhaps natural that there is some uncertainty about the constitutional provisions—after all, Nepal has a brand new constitution and it has not yet set any precedents for changes in government. It appears likely, however, that the constitutional provisions will soon receive authoritative interpretation, and this will pave the path for a change in government.

For now, what is deeply worrying is that the current focus on changing the government has already started, leading to a paralysis in governance. This is particularly disappointing since one of the objectives of the new constitution is to prevent quick changes in government and bring some stability to the country’s politics.

It is now clear that the new constitution may not necessarily help bring greater stability than in the past. All of the parties’ actions are in accordance with their previous behaviour. As in the past, it is likely that the entire process of changing the government through a vote in Parliament and then putting together a new council of ministers will take months. During this entire period, governance tends to come to a standstill. This will be particularly damaging for large sections of the population that depend on the government for crucial services.

The NC and the Maoist Centre should remain aware that their actions could delay some critical political and governance processes, and they should take steps to mitigate some of the consequences of the change in government. For starters, on the political front, they could start engaging deeply with the Madhesi parties and figure out a plan to accommodate their grievances in the constitution. Simultaneously, they should chart a path towards holding elections to the local bodies, provincial legislatures and the federal parliament.

Poor governance will have a direct impact on the reconstruction process, which has remained lacklustre even in the best of times. The NC and the Maoists feel that the UML has excessively politicised the earthquake reconstruction process and used it as a means to benefit UML cadres. It is very likely that once in office the NC will try to install its own loyalists in key positions in the National Reconstruction Authority and other ministries. If history is any indication, partisan interests deeply hurt governance.

Over the medium term, the political class will have to devise ways to ensure the autonomy of state institutions so that the work of governance can continue unimpeded even when politicians are involved in efforts to make or break governing coalitions.