Two months ago, prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal surprised many when he appeared, together with Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba, to pacify with ease the agitating Madhesi parties who want several changes in the constitution adopted last year.

The alliance of the Maoists, NC and the regional forces that formed to topple prime minister KP Sharma Oli, however, seems to be in trouble after Dahal missed two self-imposed dates to register constitutional amendments: first before he embarked on his India visit, second before the festivals kicked off.

The initial cautious optimism was destined to be short-lived, considering the drifting demands of the Tarai parties and the hardened position of Oli’s party—CPN-UML, without whose support any amendment to the constitution is impossible. Add to that the Hindu monarchist RPP-Nepal, fresh out of government, for which a successful implementation of the secular republican order means little.

While the current ruling coalition had run out of patience to let the Oli regime crumble under the weight of its failure to carry out post-earthquake reconstruction and build consensus for holding the three tiers of elections, the same ghost seems close to haunting the Maoist-NC government. On the rebuilding front, no tangible progress has been made beyond the tokenistic fast-paced

distribution of the private home reconstruction grants. As for the elections, the government has been unable even to say for sure when they will be held.

In 15 months from now, local level, provincial and federal elections have to be held in order to avoid a political and constitutional vacuum. But, as always, holding elections is not easy in Nepal. If it were, the local government units would not have been without people’s representatives for more than 15 years now. Besides, the Madhesi parties wrestle to extract concessions each time the polls are planned, in the form of constituency delimitation and citizenship distribution in bulk.This gives them an electoral advantage while some non-nationals also get citizenship cards in the rushed process.

This time around two bigger roadblocks remain to the polls: reformation of the local bodies and redrawing of the provincial boundaries. Without clearing these, credible elections cannot be imagined.

The problem lies also in the negotiation process. With the lack of a fresh mandate, the same forces that violently clashed while passing the constitution cannot be trusted to hammer out a deal acceptable to all—one that prepares all the forces to contest the polls.

The parties have political calculations in state delineation. In other words, leaders of parties, small and big, have a particular federal map in mind for their electoral gains. This row went on for more than seven years before three major parties pressed ahead with constitution promulgation without taking the Madhesi and Janajati parties, and India, into confidence.

Since there has not been a major change in the political scenario, the chances of arriving at consensus for carving out the federal units appear slim even if the government’s commissions may be able to recommend their models.

That most of the parties, forces and leaders that wield power today are a discredited lot needs no explanation. Moreover, each negates another to such an extent that the idea floated by one is unacceptable to others even within the same party. The erstwhile Constituent Assembly that has been transformed into Legislature-Parliament has outlived its purpose.

A viable option, therefore, would be to elect the House of Representatives at the Centre first, rather than holding the planned polls for the local bodies or the provinces. The fresh mandate will not only create a new dispensation but reveal the real power of a party or leader. This will also give people a clue as to how seriously one outfit or politician should be taken.

Politics today has been so divisive that the parties are aligned not only on the basis of their principles but along the lines of whose interests they appear to serve. While the propagandist Oli faction in the UML has disillusioned the people with its pro-China overtures, Prime Minister Prachanda has gone so far to please India that to the general public he has lost all his nationalistic credentials. The all-powerful northern neighbour is perceived to have been displeased with the new government in Kathmandu. This leaves in limbo the planned visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Nepal.

Since domestic politics seems to have succumbed to geopolitics, at least one neighbour is suspected to be charging outfits in Nepal to yield results that suit its interests.

Foreign agents under the garb of diplomacy are found to be making our top politicians their pawns. The country has been weakened by forces within and without, so much so that Nepal’s foreign policy in the neighbourhood appears lately to be toeing India’s line.

That surely calls for a change. In a legitimate democracy the biggest change comes through the ballot. While our Election Commission has been denied the authority to declare elections, the government and the major parties should demonstrate their will and zeal to elect the lower house. With the federal government in place, the new regime would negotiate with the newly elected forces to lay out the outer federal structure.

A successful federalisation of the country is desirable both socially and economically. Look at the streets in the Capital today: choked with traffic all the time. The decentralising effect of the federation will mean creation of new regional centres, which will not only lessen the burden on Kathmandu Valley but give hope of development and state facilities and services to the people outside.Then a student who has just completed school in Kailali will hopefully not have to travel to the federal capital for a sellable college degree. Nor will a kidney patient in Jhapa have to be flown to the Valley for a reliable stone removal operation.