With the main opposition CPN-UML’s protests against the constitution amendment proposal gathering momentum and the Madhes-based parties refusing to take ownership of the bill registered in Parliament, the country appears to be headed for another round of turmoil, leaving the constitution implementation process in disarray.

Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s government looks poised to miss the crucial opportunity to give broader legitimacy to the divisive constitution due to the political polarisation fuelled by the amendment process that is underway.

The governing CPN (Maoist Centre) and the Nepali Congress registered an amendment proposal in Parliament last week with an aim to address the demands of the agitating Madhes-based parties. If endorsed, this would be a second amendment to the constitution promulgated on September 20, 2015.

While it remains unclear whether the bill will get enough support in Parliament, it is becoming increasingly clear that the proposal, if pushed through, is likely to deepen the polarisation, say commentators.

“There is the danger of a full blown conflict and communal strife if the parties go the way they seem to be headed right now. No one in the leadership position appears serious about finding a solution now in anticipation of the impending election,” said Krishna Khanal, a professor of political science at the Tribhuvan University.

“It was a mistake to promulgate the constitution ignoring the concerns of the fringe Madhesi parties over state restructuring. Now it’s everyone’s responsibility to fix it. In the given circumstances, I don’t see the possibility of an election either.”

Hours after the amendment proposal was registered on Tuesday, the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, an alliance of seven Madhes-based parties, declined to own it up. The parties have vowed not to approve the bill unless all their demands are met.

Sadbhawana Party Chairman Rajendra Mahato told the Post that there should be some agreement on the so called five disputed districts of the eastern and western plains for the amendment to be acceptable to the regional parties.

But the governing CPN (Maoist Centre) and Nepali Congress have dismissed the possibility of further revision to the bill fearing sporadic protests on the ground. Tensions are already running high in the western plains where thousands of people are protesting against the plan to break the Hill districts off Province 5.

The government has proposed to form a Tarai-only province incorporating parts of Nawalparasi, Rupandehi, Kapilvastu, Dang, Banke and Bardia districts while integrating the northern districts of Province 5 into Province 4.

The main opposition UML, which has stood firmly against the amendment, has demanded that the government roll back its decision. Top Bahadur Rayamajhi, an influential Maoist leader, said the bill would be challenged both from the streets and in Parliament. He said a caucus would be formed in the House to foil the constitution amendment plan.

Tharu groups, on the other hand, have resumed a separate protest demanding alignment of Kailali and Kanchanpur districts with Province 5. They claim that the new province seeks to disfranchise the Tharus further.

Hari Roka, a left-leaning analyst, finds problematic the double standard of the political leadership that fails to grasp the sensitivity of issues. He held the NC, the UML, the Maoist Centre and the Madhesi Morcha equally responsible for the current crisis.

“You won’t touch a certain area of Nawalparasi because it’s the electoral constituency of Shashank Koirala. You don’t want to bring Kailali-Kanchanpur on the negotiating table because it’s the constituency of Sher Bahadur Deuba. You won’t allow any changes in the boundaries of Province 1 because it’s KP Oli’s area. How can you solve the problem with such mentality?” questioned Roka, adding that top leaders were acting like leaders of a particular district. Roka said that the UML was trying to cash in on the fluid political situation by raising a false alarm in the Pahadi population of a “threat to national sovereignty”.

“If the UML truly believes it would be against national interests to carve out another province in the plains, it must tell the people why it supported the formation of Province 2,” said Roka.

Political observers appear particularly worried about the growing tendency among both the major and Madhesi parties to antagonise one community over another.

“Parties are giving a communal twist to the state restructuring discourse for political gains. It’s sure to backfire,” said Prof Khanal.

Despite the underlying challenges, Khanal said it was indispensable for the parties to arrive at a solution sooner or later in order to lead the country towards peace and prosperity.