Human inventiveness has not yet found a mechanical method to replace horses as a way of propulsion for carts,” claimed the French journal Le Petit in 1894. It was also during this period that a 126 km long motor race was organised. In the race were motors powered by steam, petrol, electricity, pneumatic, and hydraulics. Out of 102 competitors, only 25 machines were picked as being capable of completing a 50 km trial race. At the end, an Internal Combustion (IC) engine powered by petrol secured the first position. A century later, and the IC engine has changed the face of the transportation system. However, developments over the past couple of decades have put the IC engine’s future in jeopardy, as batteries and electric motors have emerged as strong competitors to overshadow the IC engine.

Constantly improving

The 19th century electric vehicles (EVs) used to need power stations every 25 to 30 kms, but rapid development in the technology of lithium ion batteries (Li-cells) have presented these batteries as a possible replacement of ICs. The Chevy Bolt manufactured by Chevrolet has a capacity to run up to 383 kms once fully charged. The vehicle by Tesla has an even better battery capacity, enabling it to run about 1000 kms on a single charge. Electric cars like the Chinese NEVI and the Indian REVA have become popular in Nepal and can travel up to 120 kms on a single charge. The charging duration has also diminished remarkably along with increments in durability and battery life.

India and China are planning to fully replace IC motors with electric vehicles by 2030, and as Nepal almost (fully) relies upon India and China when it comes to importing vehicles, this will likely have a deep and direct impact in Nepal as well. The most popular vehicle brands in Nepal such as Tata, Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai, Kia, and Nissan have also started manufacturing EVs. The competition among these companies is likely to increase, resulting in a sharp fall in the price of EV’s. Recently, Maruti, Suzuki and Toyota have formulated terms to work together for research and development and plan to launch their first EV by 2020 in India. The Union Bank of Switzerland (USB), a Swiss global financial company, predicts that the EVs will make up about 14 percent of global cars by 2025, up from 1 percent today. By 2040, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) expects that 55 percent of the IC engines will be replaced by EVs.

Hulas, the lone motoring company in Nepal, brought the eco-friendly e-rickshaw onto the roads in 2014. Besides Hulas, there are other companies who have also recently started assembling such rickshaws. These vehicles are seen plying the roads of the Tarai region and are popularly known as City Safaris. Hulas is currently undergoing testing programs of another electric vehicle in various parts of the country. The vehicle is reported to cost around Rs 1.4 million to 1.5 million and is known as ‘Da Vinci’.

Feasibility in Nepal

To foster EVs in Nepal, the government has reduced the tax on EVs to 10 percent and 1 percent for private and public EVs. This is a significant drop from the 40 percent tax previously imposed. This attempt will definitely encourage and attract users as well as entrepreneurs in the future. According to research, there were 12 million EVs on the road last year, which shows a 60 percent increase from the numbers in 2015. Electric tempos were introduced in Nepal in 1996 and are still seen on the roads of Kathmandu. A few older tempos are still in operation, and another 1,200 such tempos have been added to their ranks. Trolley buses were also in operation in the Capital for some times but lack of proper management, corruption and political instability hit the buses hard. With appropriate management and government support in the near future the trolley can also be brought back into operation.

The cost per KWH of electricity was about $1,000 in 2010 and has declined to $130-200 now; the cost is likely to decrease further in the future. Even the cost of Li-cells has fallen by 73 percent since 2010 and is expected to go down further since it has been proved that old and damaged cells can be recycled and reused. Nepal has the potential of generating around 40,000 MW of electricity as per the Department of Electricity (DDE). Though only about 850 MW is being generated currently, the generation of electricity will certainly increase considering those hydro projects that are currently either planned or already under construction. The Government hopes to produce up to 10,000 MW and 20,000 MW in the 2020s and 2030s respectively.

Compared to IC engines, EV’s utilise fewer and simpler parts and hence incur low maintenance and repairing costs. EVs are also enormously environmental friendly. According to America’s National Resources Defence Council, EVs reduce emission by 54 percent compared to the gases emitted by IC’s. Emissions could reduce even further with additional developments of technology in the upcoming years. The World Health Organisation (WHO) report says air pollution results in 3.7 million deaths a year. As per WHO, Nepal ranks 177^th out of 180 countries in terms of air quality. A study in 2016 found that over 9,000 people died as a consequence of the air quality in Kathmandu. Nepal must take all these issues into account in the coming days and discourage the use of combustion engines, which in turn will prove positive for the growth of EVs.

With increasing oil crises and other problems, the EVs are on the verge of replacing IC engine motor industries. The IC engine had a great run over the past years, but now the era of the machine that so changed the globe seems to be passing.

 Subedi is a mechanical engineer