Monsoon arrived in Nepal 10 days behind the normal time of June 10, and there has been a pause in rainfall across the country as of the first week of July. According to the Ministry of Agricultural Development, as of July 6, the transplantation rate has slowed to a meagre 23.2 percent of the country’s total 1.52 million hectares paddy field. In the same period last year, paddy plantation was completed on 45 percent of the area.

The plantation rate in the Tarai region—the country’s food basket—has been the lowest at 18.3 percent, compared to 36 percent in the same period last year. The Tarai has 70 percent of the country’s paddy fields.

What makes the scenario more worrisome for the 2014-15 crop outlook is that the transplantation rate this year is well behind the rate in 2012-13, when the country had suffered a drought that resulted in paddy yield dropping 11.3 percent to 4.50 million tonnes. Transplantation was completed on 28 percent of the land until July 6 in 2012-13.

It also led farm sector growth to shrink to 1.07 percent year on year hurting the economic growth rate that plunged to a six-year low of 3.56 percent.

“There are no reports on shortage of fertilisers and workers this year, but rainfall particularly in the plains has been dismal and slowed paddy plantation,” said Hem Raj Regmi, chief statistician at the ministry.

As the July rainfall will be vital for plants to grow well, inadequate rains by mid-July in the Tarai could harm the agricultural scenario, he said. “However, as paddy transplantation in the region spills over into August, it is still not a big cause for concern,” Regmi said.

Ministry officials said that the June deficiency could result in a drop in productivity by at least 5 percent, and it can increase further if the July rains are delayed.

The heavy July-August downpours are vital not only for land where there is no irrigation facility but also for areas with irrigation facilities as inadequate rains affect rivers and rivulets with low flows from where the land is irrigated. The round-the-year irrigation coverage area in Nepal currently is at 18 percent.

As the farming sector accounts for about 36 percent of Nepal’s gross domestic product (GDP) of nearly Rs 1.8 trillion, the current scenario could hurt summer output and stoke inflation, experts said.

“Output will be affected mostly in the Hills as paddy plantation season is already over there,” said Bhola Man Singh Basnet, principal scientist (agronomy) and a retired director of Nepal Agricul-tural Research Council. He, however, said that the Tarai region still had time as transplantation can be carried out until August if there are strong rains.

Besides, the Tarai region has an alternative to apply direct-seeded paddy on water-deficit land. But direct-seeded paddy needs to be well managed as it suffers from some constraints like high weed infestation.

The ministry data show that the paddy plantation rate in the hilly and mountainous regions has slowed to 33.5 percent and 39.4 percent respectively as against 65 percent and 63 percent in the same period last year.

Region-wise, plantation in the central and western regions has been the slowest at 18 percent and 19 percent respectively, as against 33 percent and 54 percent in the same period last year.

The far-western region has the highest rate among all with transplantation completed on 30.7 percent land. In the same period last year, it was 67 percent.

The statistics show that the transplantation rate in the eastern and mid-western regions is 25.8 percent and 29 percent, respectively, compared to 35 percent and

64 percent in the same period last year.

REGION-WISE TRANSPLANTATION

Region    Normal area      Planted area     Plantation rate     Last year’s        

                   (in hectares)     (in hectares)              (in %)               (in %)

Eastern            470,665             121,528                25.8                  35

Central             410,342               73,837                18.0                   33

Western           312,740               60,289                19.3                   54

Mid-western    172,112               49,830                 29.0                   64

Far-western    160,492               49,192                 30.7                    67

Total                1,526,351           354,677                 23.2                    45

(Source: Ministry of Agricultural Development)