The political parties are very much aware of their self-imposed January 22 deadline for promulgation of the new constitution. They also know of the possible backlash if they fail to meet this deadline. Hence, major party leaders have recently engaged in numerous formal and informal talks seeking compromise on contentious issues of the new constitution. But despite regular meetings, the constitution-drafting process has not moved ahead as per the Constituent Assembly calendar. One crucial deadline (mid-September) for the settling of contentious issues has already been missed, bringing the mid-October deadline for the first draft of the constitution under question.

There are multiple reasons for such a scenario and if the parties fail to overcome them immediately, a new constitution by January 22 will not be possible. Intra-party disputes, a trust deficit, and the lack of strong government are the primary causes for the deadlock. Despite meetings, party leaders do not seem serious about drafting the constitution; all they seem to be seeking is power, either in government or in their respective parties.

Weak leaderships

During the initial days of the peace process, major party leaders took bold decisions, which were key to making progress. Girija Prasad Koirala of the Nepali Congress (NC) was especially capable of taking any decision on his own and managing his party accordingly. Then general secretary of the CPN-UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, was also a powerful leader. Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Baburam Bhattarai of the UCPN (Maoist) were then also on the same page. With recent changes in leadership, the party chiefs have all seemingly turned weak, thinking first about their position in the party before taking any decision.

Now, there is a lack of unity on key agendas within the major parties themselves. All the leaders of the major parties are facing non-cooperation from party rivals. Party chiefs face severe criticism from rival camps on any proposal. These intra-party rifts have crippled the major parties, holding them hostage to indecision.

For example, there is a sharp division inside the NC and the UML about providing leadership of the High Level Political Committee (HLPC) to UCPN (Maoist) Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal. Besides the HLPC, the parties have also failed to come up with official positions on contentious constitutional issues.

Inside the UCPN (Maoist), senior leader Baburam Bhattarai seems to be working hard to forge consensus on contentious issues as he is in favour of drafting a new constitution even if that means compromising on a few agendas. However, Chairman Dahal is against all compromise. Dahal is busy forging alliances with other parties and is in pursuit of unification with the breakaway party CPN-Maoist. A similar situation exists within the UML. The reaction from the Madhav Kumar Nepal faction regarding the recent Cabinet reshuffle is a glaring example that top leaders do not consult each other before taking major decisions. In the NC, the Sushil Koirala camp seems rigid on Maoist demands while the Sher Bahadur Deuba faction is in favour of the formation of a HLPC under Dahal.

Little trust

The trajectory of Nepal’s peace and constitution-drafting process is that it moves ahead when there is an environment of trust among the parties. When the level of trust reaches a high point, parties have been known to give up rigid stances and reach a compromise. But currently, there is a trust deficit among the major stakeholders of peace process. The ruling parties, the NC and UML, harbour suspicions that the UCPN (Maoist) is trying to derail the constitution-drafting process due to its alliance with the CPN-Maoist, which has long opposed the entire political process. The ruling parties believe that Dahal is attempting to increase his influence in constitution drafting by asking for an HLPC, but is not honest about promulgating a new statute. Furthermore, Dahal was against bringing in the CPN-Maoist to last year’s November 19 election, but now, he has been saying that there is no meaning to a new constitution without the CPN-Maoist’s participation.    

The opposition parties, on the other hand, allege that the ruling parties are deliberately sidelining issues related to the peace process, primarily the provision of relief to war-era victims and the formation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC). Dahal particularly seems to fear that war-era cases could be revived against him and his party leaders if the TRC issue is not settled before the constitution is drafted. The Madhes-based parties too think that their agendas might be defeated if the ruling parties go for a vote on contentious issues, in the absence of consensus. There are also justifiable fears that the ruling parties are attempting to backtrack from their positions on federalism and inclusion.

To add fuel to the fire, statements made by some top ruling party leaders that there should be a north-south division while delineating provinces or that a new constitution could be promulgated by putting off federalism have created further mistrust.

Weak government

The role of the government is to facilitate the constitution-drafting process. In principle, the CA is a sovereign process but in practice, the pace of constitution drafting is directly linked with the performance of the government. This government has so far failed to create the proper political environment required. The prolonged deadlock in the House is a glaring example of how the government is not playing the pivotal role required to facilitate the constitution drafting.  

The government has not assured opposition parties, including the CPN-Maoist, that they will not be sidelined. The government and the CPN-Maoist share equal blame for the failure to hold a roundtable conference. The government fixed the date for the roundtable without considering the agenda submitted by the CPN-Maoist.

Due to his health, Prime Minister Sushil Koirala has not reached out to opposition parties on constitutional issues, even as senior NC leaders Deuba and Ram Chandra Poudel lack the mandate from party president Koirala to reach out to opposition parties and address their concerns. Koirala himself rarely attends cross-party talks.

If these three crucial issues are not addressed immediately, it is unlikely that the new constitution will be drafted by January 22. The ruling parties need to provide space to Dahal and he, in turn, must make a fresh commitment to the constitution. Towards this end, Dahal must not insist on the CPN-Maoist’s inclusion as a precondition to the statute.

Bhattarai is with the political desk at The Post