Sher Bahadur Deuba has officially taken the helm of the Nepali Congress (NC) in his third attempt. From the Home Ministry to being the executive head of the country three times, Deuba has not only accumulated bags of experience in running the state but also managed to guide a separate party, Nepali Congress Democratic, and later a parallel faction after it merged with the mother party.

Party politics

Deuba overwhelmingly beat his counterpart by a wide margin of votes to be elected as the president. Whether it was the untimely demise of the former party president Sushil Koirala or the factionalism that arose within the camp following his death, it was the most ideal of times for Deuba to contest the elections.

The party was internally almost defunct, sister organisations failed to hold their elections, party departments remained vacant and idle, and Koirala was heavily criticised for “kothe rajniti”—taking decisions unilaterally. Frustration brewed among the cadres that the party was being turned into a family affair. This was when Deuba first rolled his dice in an attempt to garner support and project himself as a viable option. Several leaders from the Koirala camp chose to disassociate themselves from the establishment faction. Senior leaders of the party never spoke openly in favour of Ram Chandra Poudel. Eventually, Krishna Prasad Sitaula, from within the same faction, fought for presidency.

The newly elected president nominated six aspirants and an ailing Narahari Acharya, into the Central Committee and pledged to conduct elections of the sister organisations within the next six months. Considering the votes he managed to garner in the general convention, he should now be able to capitalise on the conducive environment not only to spread his wings within the party but to give an impression that he means business. A fresh face at the wheel of the sister organisations will help in reviving the party at the ground level, and should also assert Deuba’s grip going into the 14th general convention.

Accommodating dissents

The election of the parliamentary party leader is slated to be held within a

month. Deuba naturally will be staking claim. It may be an opportunity for his rival faction to assert its strength, but representing the party in Parliament means more elbow room for Deuba to play a watchful and constructive role as an opposition leader, something he has repeatedly mentioned of late. Moreover, taking into account that the country will hold three elections—local, state and central—within a few years, the former prime minister deserves to advocate the policies and programmes he has been mandated to.

In terms of giving the Central Committee its full shape, Deuba will have to be wary of losing his grip within the party by appointing too many rival members in the name of ‘giving everyone space’. It will be interesting to see how he accommodates the growing aspirations of some of the influential leaders within his camp. However, Deuba will have more space to manoeuvre once the NC adapts to the federal structure by increasing the number of office bearers to oversee provinces through the Mahasamiti to be called in a year’s time, something both camps have agreed upon.

State politics

State politics is a whole different ball game. Deuba, for now, should refrain from succumbing to the dirty politics of toppling the government. As the current government faces another round of supposedly stern protests by the Madhesi parties, the challenge of rising inflation, stunted growth, a snail-paced National Reconstruction Authority and continuous black marketeering of petroleum products, among others, it has been an open secret that the government has underperformed.

Coalition partners have already begun talking about a national government following the NC’s convention. However, the most pertinent of issues—that of the Madhesis—is not something that will be solved overnight. But as the government and the prime minister himself seem to be in no mood to resolve the crisis, it makes no sense for the NC to join the already jumbo cabinet to ‘implement the constitution’.

As the likely parliamentary party leader of the opposition party, Deuba will be aware that until constitutional dissatisfactions are resolved, it would be wise for the NC to rectify the matter through talks from outside the government. And if, by any chance, the NC is asked to lead the government once the Madhesis agree to join, that government will likely have to hold the elections. However enticing it might seem to Deuba and his close aides to jump at the chance of sitting at the helm, the NC leadership should be looking at the bigger picture. The NC dismally crumbled in the first Constituent Assembly elections despite being in government. But results turned around in the second CA elections when the NC had largely remained out of power, proving that a party does not necessarily have to be in the government to fare well in the polls. And more, Deuba will have another couple of years to push his plans and policies among the commoners, hoping that the NC emerges as the largest party once again in the next polls. That is when Deuba should be eyeing power, especially when the political changes are established and the country could solely focus on development matters. The constitutional provision that a no-confidence motion cannot be filed against a government for at least two years is worth remembering here. In other words, Deuba will then be looking at a more stable government.

As Deuba enters the most decisive innings of his political career, he will have to deliver on three fronts—addressing the disgruntled forces, revamping the party so the NC wins the next elections and ending the factional politics within the party. Whether Deuba proves his critics wrong will be judged by the public during the next elections and the 14th general convention of the NC.

Ghimire is a sub-editor with The Kathmandu Post