It is not a surprise that the Oli-led government is about to be toppled. Both Deuba and Prachanda were restless to grab power; given their track record, both lack vision beyond immediate benefits and are insensitive to national interests. Prachanda saw that Deuba would be more amenable to share power with him than Oli. But it has happened sooner than expected. It is a layman’s guess that the process was expedited at the behest of the ‘southern lords’.

What ramifications are to be expected from this turn of events? I have heard private conjectures that it will improve Nepal’s relations with India that deteriorated during Prime Minister Oli’s tenure. The conjecture might be true in the immediate future as India has not hidden its distaste for Oli. But it will render Nepal weaker vis-à-vis India in the long run by undermining Nepal’s strengthening bargaining power under Oli. Often, Nepali leaders or officials forget while dealing with India that we are a sovereign nation. To show its jubilation at the departure of Oli, India may offer some sweeteners.

Oli’s positives

Let us look back at some good starts Oli made as the prime minister. Every sensitive Nepali gives credit to the bold stand he took against India, when it imposed a cruel blockade that caused untold hardship to the Nepali people. This boldness raised Nepal’s status in the Indian eyes for the first time. Oli refused to accept the invitation by his Indian counterpart before the withdrawal of the blockade. He is responsible for the process of revising the controversial 1950 Treaty. No prime minister before him had had the guts to seriously initiate the treaty’s revision. If Nepalis can argue with their heads high now, the credit goes to Oli.

Second, Oli deserves credit for having initiated diversification of Nepal’s economic relations, particularly with China. He signed a trade and transit accord, debunking the myth of the insurmountable Himalayas. Various routes are now being opened and used for the transit of supplies from across the Himalayas. This will provide a more comfortable alternative to air transit to a landlocked country like Nepal. India can no longer bully Nepal as easily as before.

Third, Oli should get recognition for making initiatives to implement the new constitution. He had decided to hold elections for the local bodies and for the state and national legislatures. These elections are the prerequisites for the formation of a federal Nepal. Despite the difficulties involved, the state and national level elections can be conducted simultaneously, saving time and other resources.

However, the abrupt change of power has disrupted the process. Now a big question has arisen: Will the elections be held as planned? Given the Nepali political culture, it will not be wrong to predict that the programmes started by the previous regime will not be continued by the succeeding regime and the nation will be the ultimate loser.

Oli also deserves credit for stimulating economic development by mobilising maximum resources through a big budget and encouraging private sector investment through a favourable fiscal policy. This year’s budget has been acclaimed by a significant segment of experts as being development friendly. But the new power set-up might do everything possible to undermine the positive impacts of the budget by controlling its disbursement.

Upcoming prospects

Now, let us concentrate on the post-Oli prospects. There can be only one bright prospect if the leadership handles the matter sensibly—the Madhesi movement (MM) will wither away. There are two main reasons for this. As the saying goes, my enemy’s enemy is my friend; the Madhesi leaders will share common hatred for Oli with the Prachanda-Deuba duo. But a greater reason is that the MM will have a soft landing after so much of senseless hullabaloo. Let us hope at least this prospect materialises.

The first lack of practical sense is the declaration that even before the discussion on the tabled no-confidence motion, the present opposition (the prospective government) will stop the passage of the fiscal instruments that are required to use the budget. If and when the no-confidence motion is passed, Oli will no longer be there. It is these leaders who will have to get the budget to run their government. Any ordinary citizen will laugh at the wisdom of these leaders.

The worst ramification of this political manoeuvre is that the nation will plunge back into political instability, which has been the curse of Nepal with no government lasting more than three years since the restoration of multiparty system. There was some sign of stability after the constitution’s promulgation, with the exception of the Madhesi issue. Prachanda was talking about a consensual government minutes before he announced the withdrawal of his party’s support to the Oli government. The very next day, the polarisation was made so acute that he tabled a no-confidence motion against the government in collaboration with the Nepali Congress (NC). The prospect of a consensual government has vanished for the foreseeable future. The prospect of a single party government was dead long ago. Now, we will have to arrange everything on an ad-hoc basis. The NC-Maoist marriage is a transient affair and the sufferer is not Oli but the country. But who cares?

The immediate victim will be the implementation of the constitution. The new political arrangement will take a significant amount of time to gain people’s confidence. There will be irreconcilable polarisation in Parliament, thwarting the process of progressive legislation which is urgently necessary if the country’s federalisation is to be formally established. The change of guards at the expiration of nine months is unlikely to be smooth given the Nepali rate of the implementation of political commitments.

The next victim will be the process of diversification of trade and transit with and through China. With the apparent pro-India tilt of the prospective government, the China factor is unlikely to get the priority that it had under Oli’s leadership. India may loosen some of its strings to weaken Nepal’s attraction towards China. It may even offer some incentives to achieve this. We will again forget that we have been mercilessly bullied. That will eventually be Nepal’s loss.

A political change was not at all warranted at this stage. It will not do any good to the nation, or to the Maoists and the NC. I do not see the prospect of election for the state and national legislatures. In the unlikely event that the elections are conducted, the UML will win by a landslide, considering the people’s verdict in the past. So the NC and the Maoists will be the losers. Particularly for the Maoists it will be a nosedive towards extinction.

Sharma is a political analyst. He can be reached at [email protected]