Is he coming? Is he not coming? Speculation over the possible visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Nepal in 2016 has ended with it becoming clear that it is not going to happen, at least not this year. The government even sent Deputy Prime Minister Krishna Bahadur Mahara to Beijing as a special envoy to extend a formal invitation, but he is not coming. Whether Xi will visit Nepal in the near future or not will be known with time. However, since we have missed the chance of hosting one of the most influential global leaders, there must be a discourse so that something like that does not occur again.

One Belt One Road Initiative

After assuming power in 2013, Xi has accorded priority to visiting countries sharing a border with China and those having strategic importance in translating China’s mega vision, the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Initiative, that aims to connect over 60 countries through land and marine routes. As scheduled, Xi visited Cambodia and Bangladesh before heading to Goa, India to participate in the Brics Summit. He was supposed to visit Nepal before or after the summit meeting. Xi’s visits to Cambodia and Bangladesh were a significant success which lifted bilateral ties into strategic partnership and cooperation. Moreover, Bangladesh signed a $24 billion loan agreement for multiple projects including a 170-km railway track.

Nepal’s government and political establishment should calculate the impact this will have on Bangladesh’s economy and the way it will insulate it. Hosting Xi will help Nepal increase its height in the global arena, not just boost the economy. Since China has achieved significant growth and has become more vocal about global issues, the world watches closely wherever he goes. Xi’s presence in Nepal at a time when it has recently adopted a new constitution and is on the verge of making a development journey could have given a global message about the current scenario. Similarly, though Nepal’s role in China’s OBOR initiative has been talked about widely, it isn’t clear how the Himalayan republic will be incorporated in the mega plan. Xi’s visit will help us define our position in OBOR, and advance our bid to become a gateway for China to South Asia.

Stability is key

Political instability in Nepal has been one of the reasons affecting high-level exchanges with China. The Communist Party of China (CPC), the largest party in the world with more than 80 million members, has been at the helm for almost seven decades, which shows that China believes stability in politics is a vital component for development. Guided by this belief, the northern neighbour is conscious about the institutions it deals with. Ever since the restoration of democracy in Nepal in 1990, there has been instability on the political front. It has only become worse in the recent past. With none of the major political forces—the Nepali Congress (NC), the CPN-UML and the CPN (Maoist Centre)—

succeeding in securing a clear majority in the elections, sharing power has become the core concern of our internal politics.

Talk about the possible visit of Xi gained momentum when KP Sharma Oli was the head of government. The current government led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, if it abides by the ‘gentleman’s agreement’, will fall within a couple

of months and power will be handed over to the NC. Against such a scenario, China will find it difficult to accord priority to Nepal. China takes agreements and understandings signed by its president seriously. For this to happen, stability is key.

Xi has not visited next-door neighbour Nepal even though it can play a crucial role in the OBOR initiative. In fact, Nepal has not succeeded in hosting any Chinese president in the last two decades. Nepal and China have a friendly and cordial relationship, but it has not been raised to the next level in the absence of such high-level bilateral exchanges. While Nepal has two giant neighbours, China shares a land border with 14 countries. This means the way we look at China and the way China looks at us cannot be the same. There is a need to read between the lines properly when dealing with China.

Understanding China

We need to rise above traditional diplomacy to have greater cooperation with China. Apart from conventional diplomacy, we need to up the ante to decode signals dispatched via Track II, Track III and even Track 1.5 diplomacy. News about Xi’s possible visit was widely disseminated in Nepal. The prime minister himself went on record assuring the country that it would happen. But all the while, China kept mum except for reiterating a single statement that “the visit will happen at an appropriate time”. It is important for the government and, in particular, the Foreign Ministry, to dissect this statement. China has its own way of practicing diplomacy, and it is known for making low-key approaches. The government of Nepal should be ready to deal with China in a similar fashion.

While we see political instability as the only thing impacting such high level exchanges, we fail to understand that diplomacy has many more dynamics. The government needs to invest in understanding China to make sure that the signals dispatched by Beijing are decoded properly. We lack institutions and manpower focusing on the northern neighbour, resulting in ambiguous interpretation of the subject matter. There is a need to provide orientation to political leaders, not only bureaucrats and individuals, and create a national consensus on the kind of ties Nepal should maintain with China and India to reap the optimum benefit. Anyway, better late than never, as the saying goes. Nepal should learn from the efforts made to host the Chinese president, examine what improvements need to be made and work proactively to ensure that such visits happen in the days to come.

Joshi is Joint General Secretary of the Nepal Students’ Union