The Janata Samajbadi Party Nepal (JSP-Nepal)’s division is expected to lead the Madhesh provincial government into a crisis. The CPN (Maoist Centre), Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s party that has backed the Madhesh government, was in an internal meeting on Thursday to discuss the prospect of the provincial government, which is led by the JSP-Nepal chaired by Upendra Yadav.

On Sunday, Ashok Rai, the federal council chair of the Yadav-led JSP-Nepal, along with six other lawmakers and 30 central committee members, split the party to form the Janata Samajbadi Party. The Election Commission on Monday registered the Rai-led new party.

At least two Madhesh assembly leaders of the Maoist Centre the Post spoke to said they are considering forming a new government in the province.

“As we are still discussing a change in the provincial government, it would be premature to share the details,” a Maoist Centre provincial lawmaker told the Post on condition of anonymity. “We are taking up the issue with various parties in the provincial assembly.”

“With the budget session of the provincial assembly fast approaching, we want to conclude the discussion on the new government before that,” the Maoist Centre provincial assembly member said.

The Maoist Centre holds two ministries in the Madhesh government led by Saroj Yadav. Bharat Sah, the parliamentary party leader of the Maoist Centre who took charge of the Ministry of Forests, has not been working, accusing the chief minister of not allowing him to lead the finance ministry as promised at the time of a Cabinet reshuffle on April 16.

The Maoist Centre had claimed the government’s leadership in Madhesh after Prime Minister Dahal changed coalition partners at the centre on March 4. But Saroj Kumar Yadav was reappointed the chief minister based on the broad power-sharing deal reached at the centre.

On April 16 Saroj Yadav sought a vote of confidence from the provincial assembly for the fourth time after the formation of the provincial government in January last year. In the latest floor test, Yadav secured 61 votes in his favour in the 107-member assembly. Voting for Yadav were provincial assembly members of the Janata Samajbadi Party (19), the CPN-UML (25 including the Speaker who cannot vote), the Maoist Centre (9), the CPN (Unified Socialist) (7) and independent lawmakers.

The Nepali Congress (22), the Janamat Party (13) and the Loktantrik Samajbadi Party (9) sit in the opposition.

After Sunday’s party split at the centre, the Upendra Yadav-led faction of the Janata Samajbadi held the provincial parliamentary party meeting on Monday.

Of the party’s 19 assembly members, three didn’t attend the meeting, a party leader had told the Post. Janata Samajbadi Party-Nepal central spokesperson Manish Suman, who attended the provincial meeting, said, “The split at the central level does not reflect in the provincial meeting as all members except three were present.”

Political analysts believe the coalition partners may not accept the Upendra Yadav-led party’s leadership in the provincial government, even though the split at the centre has little bearing on the JSP-Nepal in the province.

As the largest party in the provincial assembly, the UML is unlikely to support the leader of the JSP-Nepal, the third-largest party in Janakpur, as chief minister.

UML leaders have bitter relations with Madheshi politicians, mainly since 2015, the year the constitution was promulgated. As UML chair KP Sharma Oli was projected as anti-federalist and anti-Madhesh in the province, the UML leaders were even chased away from some districts and barred from holding mass gatherings there.

However, in the 2022 elections, the UML emerged as the largest party in the same province.

“The Madhesh government is unlikely to keep its current shape,” Chandra Kishore, a Madhesh-based political expert, told the Post. “The resentment against the incumbent government was growing for its poor performance. It would have fallen sooner or later, even if the JSP-Nepal had not split.”

He said the UML aspires to lead the provincial government. “The largest party in the assembly may stake its claim to the government leadership this time,” he added.

However, Rajendra Prasad Chaudhary Tharu, an assembly member from the UML, argued that the JSP-Nepal of Upendra Yadav is still strong in the province. Though the party has been vertically split at the centre, the splinter group doesn’t have the numbers to change the government in the province, the UML leader said.

“However, the provincial power equation will be largely determined by the central coalition,” UML assembly member Tharu told the Post. “A change in the Madhesh government is possible only if the Upendra Yadav-led JSP-Nepal breaks ties with the current coalition.”

JSP-Nepal leader Anirudra Prasad Singh echoes UML leader Tharu. “The fate of the Madhesh provincial government will largely depend on the decision of the ruling coalition in Kathmandu,” Singh told the Post.

Singh added, “But if the central coalition’s decision goes against us, we might have to step down from the Madhesh government leadership.”

Notably, JSP-Nepal has continuously led the Madhesh government since the first provincial election held in 2017. In fact, the Upendra Yadav-led JSP-Nepal is the only party to continuously lead a provincial government for the past seven years. Other parties are thus considering a change this time around, said a Maoist Centre provincial assembly member.