The ongoing blockade of essential supplies, especially of fuel, by India under the pretext that Nepal’s new constitution poses a threat to its national security will actually compromise the livelihood of Nepali people. And if people’s livelihood is affected, then it could pose a greater threat to Indian national security. In essence, India faces a threat to its national security not from Nepal’s constitution per se but from the violation of human rights of the Nepali people due to the blockade. If a large section of the Nepali population, especially those whose daily survival has been adversely affected by this blockade, is antagonised, India could lose the support and sympathy it enjoys in Nepal. This could prove to be highly detrimental to India in the long run.

Transportation woes

The Nepali people recently celebrated the bleakest Dashain in their lifetime. Even so, many risked their lives and travelled to their homes in overcrowded vehicles to be with their family members for the festival. The chaos resulting from the sharp reduction in the number of vehicles plying on the road, only about ten percent of the total, is there for all to see. The sight of mothers sitting on the rooftop of a bus with their children on their laps or hanging dangerously at the entrance of the buses with babies tied to their backs has become all too common. These people who are suffering due to the blockade are neither the ones involved in damaging public or private property nor protesting for political gain. They just want to get by.

Thus, the blockade—which has put the lives of thousands of people at a risk of accidents, health hazards and hunger—is definitely an inhuman act. But, all these inhumane activities are taking place in the name of the ‘national security’ of a powerful nation or for the undue political gain for a few powerful elites.

Frying pan to fire

The blockade has also added to the troubles faced by the quake-affected people. In August, I had travelled to some villages in Nuwakot and witnessed the people’s struggles for survival and recovery. They were in the process of recovery not because they had plenty of physical materials or support from external agencies or the government, but because they knew the art of surviving in a difficult condition. But, then, this blockade came along causing a steep rise in the prices of essential commodities. This will make the recovery process very difficult. It will be compounded by the fast approaching winter. These people will have a hard time keeping themselves warm in zinc-sheet huts. It is most likely to compromise the survival of old people and children and the blockade has only made matters worse.

This blockade has crippled the tourism industry too. I can feel the pain of my friends in Pokhara as I was also involved in the hospitality business there in the past.  Many had borrowed money from the banks to invest in hotels and restaurants. But now, they are worried about finding the resources to pay the interest, let alone the installment of the principal amount. The prospect of political stability after the second Constituent Assembly election, the increased flow of Chinese tourists during slack season for European tourists, and the prospect of a new international airport had encouraged people to invest more on quality hospitality enterprises. But all their hopes were first shattered by the earthquake and now by the blockade. Based on personal research, around four dozens of hotels (48) were under construction with an investment of about Rs six billion just before the earthquake. In addition, about 400 hotels (1,500 beds) were already in operation. These facilities were developed with an investment of about Rs 75 billion and it has employed thousands of people and created business opportunities for many others. Now all these investors are in despair.

Political problems

Some people argue that the problems mentioned above are trivial in comparison to political rights of the people in some parts of the Tarai-Madhes. And it is true that the human rights of the people in the Tarai have also been violated. More than 40 people were killed during the protests there. This should be investigated, and the perpetrators whether they are civilians, police or other government authorities must be brought to justice. But, this political protest should not violate the ‘right to life’ of the people across Nepal.

The political stalemate, especially in central Tarai, some say is the  major cause of the blockade and it does not look like it will end anytime soon. It will be a protracted problem simply because there are clandestine strategies packaged in political demands. If the dissenting parties push for delienating the whole of the Tarai as a single province or putforth carving at most two states in the plains as their baseline demand, then it could cause more trouble. This very proposition is partly to be blamed for the collapse of the first CA. Even if this demand is fulfilled, it could trigger a bigger political conflict because more than 60 percent people in the Tarai do not want the country to be federated in this manner. Many political parties (barring three or four Madhes-based parties) and most people of the Madhesi and Tharu communities know this.

If anything, the present blockade (whosoever caused it) could push the people of the yet to be carved provinces to demand border trade points with both India and China to ensure a relatively high level of independence in political decision-making.

Adhikari is a social scientist