Just when the Tarai districts were experiencing a sense of calm and order after months of political upheavel, clashes between the supporters of Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha and police on Thursday have once again stoked up the simmering dispute as well as fear among locals.

Three civilians were gunned down by security personnel in the eastern Tarai district of Morang on Thursday. Police administration say they were compelled to open fire as the SLMM supporters were running amok wielding sticks and sharp weapons. The SLMM supporters were apparently on their way to stop a political assembly organised by Youth Association Nepal, the sister wing of the ruling CPN-UML.

The incident, which came on the heels of the botched dialogue between the taskforces of the SLMM and the major political parties, sent shock waves across Tarai, particularly in the central region where the SLMM have been staging protests for over five months demanding, among others, two provinces comprising only the Tarai region, the southern plains that share border with India.

SLMM leader Lal Babu Raut says the Thursday’s incident clearly indicates that the major political parties have no intention of addressing the demands raised by the Madhesi community in the Tarai.

“We, on the other hand, are clear on our demands. We don’t want lip service, we cannot wait for three months, as suggested by the three parties, to sort out the issue of federal boundaries,” says Raut, who is also the vice-chairman of Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal, one of the allies in the SLMM.

Political analysts, meanwhile, say the Madhes-centric parties, mainly the SLMM that is at the forefront of the current struggle, are under pressure to make the present movement a success and that too without compromising with any of the demands.

Besides the SLMM, there are also other groups carrying out separate struggles for the Madhesi community rights. The SLMM thus cannot squander this opportunity of giving the Madhesi community their rights lest their electorates should disown them and side with other groups.

“Abhi nahi to kabhi nahi” (if not now then never) is a popular phrase that is often thrown in the middle of the conversation about the Tarai struggle these days.

The top leaders of SLMM have kept their fingers on the pulse of the situation that is why they have been insisting on a package deal. They are also after saving their political credibility, analysts say.

General Secretary of Nepal Sadbhawana Party Shiva Patel, who has closely followed the talks between the SLMM and the major political parties, says the people of Madhes have learnt by now to separate a perfunctory nod from an earnest approval.

“They want their legitimate demands addressed. And the major parties should do so, even if that means taking a few more days to work out the deal,” he says. “There is still a widespread suspicion that the major parties could make an agreement now and renege on it later.”

Meanwhile, the approach taken by security agencies to rein in the protesters have also angered many people in the Tarai. Forty-eight civilians have lost their lives in police firing since the Tarai protest began five and a half months ago. These killings have only besmirched the government in the public eye.

Pramod Gupta, a SLMM leader, says undue force used by police against the protesters have time and again heated up the situation as well as spoilt the environment for talks. A senior police official, however, says that a law enforcement agency cannot remain silent when people take laws into their hand in the name of demonstration.

“When they descend on the streets carrying weapons, it is our duty to maintain peace and order,” says the official.

The ongoing strife in the Tarai, coupled with the restrictions on overland cargo movement from India, has taken an unprecedented toll in the region.

Business activities have slumped dramatically as shops and marketplaces have remained closed for most part of the past five months. Transportation service, agriculture sector, banks, and schools have also been hit hard.

SLMM leader and lawmaker Jangilal Raya claims the knock-on effect of the protest and border restrictions have taken more toll on the people of the Tarai than anywhere else.    

“We should change the form of our protest and take our struggle to Kathmandu,” he says.

(BHUSHAN YADAV in Birgunj, LAXMI SAH in Bara & AMAN KOIRALA in Sarlahi )