Just a week from now, the Nepali Congress would be choosing its new leadership. 

While the party with two distinct factions—one led by the establishment camp traditionally controlled by the Koirala clan and another by senior leader Sher Bahadur Deuba—gears up to elect its new party president, among other key high-ranking posts, there is one bloc that could really swing the vote. And that is Tarai/Madhes.

Out of over 3,100 delegates, little less than half—or 1,400 delegates—will come from the Tarai/Madhes region to vote during the party’s 13the General Convention scheduled for March 3-6 in Kathmandu. 

Until regional political forces emerged, the region was a stronghold of the Congress party. But things have changed now, and following the promulgation of the constitution, there is a distinct discontent in the region. 

A clear and sympathetic position with a set of solutions to Tarai/ Madhes concerns could be a key when it comes to appeasing the delegates from the region. 

 In eight districts from Saptari to Parsa, where there are approximately 580 delegates, according to leaders, the Deuba faction has maintained a strong lead. Similarly, in Kailai, Kanchanpur, Bardiya and Banke in the western part, it’s sort of dead heat between the two factions. 

In Dang, Kapilvastu, Nawalparsi, Chitwan, Sunsari and Morang, the establishment faction enjoys its clout.  

 Ananda Prasad Dhungana, a key leader of the establishment faction who hails from the Madhes region, said leaders from the Deuba faction were “engaged in vote rigging” while electing convention representatives. “Even the members of election committee were found involved in vote rigging and this worries us,” said Dhungana. He, however, said they still maintain a strong hold in the Madhes.  

But NC leader Ramesh Rijal, who is close to Deuba, dismissed the charges. He instead accused the establishment side of “vote rigging”. “Our position in Madhes has significantly improved and the establishment faction is plotting to undo that,” said Rijal. 

Internal disputes had resulted in postponement of district and local conventions. 

Convention representatives from the Tarai/Madhes region are likely to vote for candidates on the basis of party presidential hopefuls’ view(s) on addressing the protests in Madhes. Many NC leaders from Madhes are not satisfied with the party leadership for not showing seriousness about resolving Madhes problems.  

A few weeks ago, Deuba had claimed Madhes problems would be resolved if he became the party president. The statement was aimed at appeasing Madhesi voters. But for many, it was high on rhetoric and low on facts, as Deuba stopped short of explaining how he was going to do that. 

Bimalendra Nidhi, an influential leader of the Deuba camp who also hails from Madhes, is of late busy convincing voters from the region that Tarai/ Madhes problems would be resolved if Deuba was given a chance to lead the party. 

When it comes to Acting party President Ram Chandra Poudel, another key presidential hopeful, not much has come from him regarding Tarai/ Madhes issues. 

A draft of party’s policy and programme prepared by a committee led by him does not contain any specific solution on resolving the Madhes issue. After first amendment to the constitution on January 23, some Madhes related demands like proportional representation and delimitation of electoral constituencies on the basis of population have been addressed. But local level Madhesi leaders and cadres of the NC expect that the new NC leadership to take the lead to address remaining issues such as boundary demarcation and citizenship, among others. 

“Our leaders and cadres want the NC to play a leadership role in resolving these issues,” said Dhungana.

• A clear and sympathetic position with a set of solutions to Tarai/ Madhes concerns could be a key when it comes to appeasing the delegates from the region, and the faction willing to address them will have an edge
• Out of over 3,100 delegates, little less than half—or 1,400 delegates—will come from the Tarai/Madhes region to vote during the party’s 13the General Convention
• In eight districts from Saptari to Parsa, where there are approximately 580 delegates, the Deuba faction has maintained a strong lead
• In Kailai, Kanchanpur, Bardiya and Banke, it’s sort of dead heat between the two factions
• In Dang, Kapilvastu, Nawalparasi, Chitwan, Sunsari and Morang, the establishment faction enjoys its clout