I recollect an in-depth interview with an American male graduate classmate in 1970 regarding gender equality. When countries in the second and third worlds had accepted women leaders to lead their countries as presidents and prime ministers, my interviewee friend was not in favour of having a woman president in the US. When I asked him what he would do if a woman becomes president during his lifetime, he replied that he would leave the country! I have no idea where that friend of mine lives today, but I will bet him that the US is going to elect a woman president come November. 

If I win the bet, I will offer my friend a flat in my house here in Nepal to migrate and settle!

Then and now

America has undergone a number of changes since 1970. First of all, it lost the Vietnam War. Second, its image was badly tarnished by its miscalculated intervention in Iraq—the suspected chemical weapons were nowhere to be found, and Iraq is in a far worse condition than it was under Saddam Hussein. Third, the Soviet Block has disintegrated, but the Russian President Vladimir Putin is causing unforeseen headaches in world politics. Fourth, the Islamic extremists are sporadically creating terror aimed at the western world. Fifth, the US has had a non-white President, thought impossible until a generation ago. These factors will directly impact the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.

Reviewing the primary rallies, it looks more than certain that Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are going to be the finalists for the Republicans and the Democrats respectively. The US has proved to be a barren land for a third party, and independent candidates have never had a significant impact on the presidential election. So, the November election will be a direct fight between Trump and Clinton. Who wins the race depends on many factors—some political and some personal.

The Republican Party is regarded the grand old party (GOP) with the longest hold on power, but in recent years the Democrats have come closer in the race. Going by recent trends, the Republicans can win this time as the Democrats have won the last two terms. The big advantage of the GOP is that it controls the Congress (Legislature) at the moment. But there are certain factors that are against the GOP, the biggest one being the nominee himself. 

The finalists

Trump is a billionaire but a new comer in the national political arena. He makes loud claims about making America great again. But he does not have the experience of running any public office. That gap is further aggravated by some of his odd, repulsive and reactive rhetoric during his campaign. One of his remarks is that Obama is not a US citizen and should not have been elected president. The most repulsive remark has been that if elected, he would not allow any Muslims to enter the US, which has caused a furore. Islamic extremists have been linked to the most recent terror activities, but not all Islamists are to blame for those. There should be more rational ways to tackle terrorism. Trump’s confrontational attitude will lead to greater global tensions. The international media have also started to label him misogynistic. 

On the other hand, Clinton has been a First Lady (as the spouse of President Bill Clinton), and is familiar with the various functions and expectations of the president. She has also been a Senator and the Secretary of State during President Obama’s first term. As Secretary of State, she took several initiatives to settle international conflicts and has developed contacts with global leaders. These qualities make Clinton more suitable than Trump to work as president.

This is Clinton’s second attempt at presidency. During her first attempt, Obama defeated her and later gave her the job of Secretary of State. She declined to continue with that job in his second term, with the tacit understanding that she would prepare for a campaign for presidency. Her big quality is that she refrains from making cheap rhetoric like Trump. She exhibits the gravity and dignity expected in a public figure like the president of the US. In a way, Trump’s eccentricities have raised Clinton’s potentialities.

Swing voters

Party voters are identified as X or Y, who do not generally change the party that they vote for. But there are a lot of neutral voters who make their decision on the spur of the moment depending on the recent campaign trends, public opinion and many associated factors. Such voters are also referred to as swing voters. In the US, the Afro-Americans, and the Latino, Asian and Eastern European migrants constitute the neutral voters. It may be safely predicted that Trump’s chauvinistic rhetoric has antagonised many of these voters. This might directly benefit Clinton. 

Voting is not compulsory in the US. So turnout is low, somewhere at 40 to 45 percent. The committed voters are not very regular because they take victory for granted. So neutral voters often have the chance to determine the outcome. If Trump does not change his rhetoric, the probability of Clinton’s victory will be high.

So far as the internal affairs of the US are concerned, the global community will be least bothered. But the world will be directly concerned about the international relations of the US, which will be largely determined by who wins the presidential race. If Clinton wins, the bulk of the present US foreign policy is likely to be continued. It means mainly that the global peace process will continue. But if Trump wins, there might be confrontation in several fields. The terrorism factor will take a more sinister form by giving it a religious or ethnic colour. The world will feel a lot lighter if Clinton is elected the next US president.

Sharma is a political analyst. He can be contacted at [email protected]