As the CPN-UML continues to question the rationale for a second constitutional amendment in accordance with the demands of the Madhesi and Janajati parties, the government seems to be unable to take the main opposition into confidence before tabling a proposal in the next few days.

But if the ruling coalition of the Maoist Centre and Nepali Congress is able to bring all the Madhes-based parties on board for tabling the amendment proposal, the next question would be if the government can pass the proposal without the support of the second largest party and handle its political fallout.

When Pushpa Kamal Dahal was elected the country’s 39th prime minister three months ago, he got 363 of the total 573 votes cast. The Parliament has 595 members.

The NC, the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum Loktantrik, Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal, Rastriya Prajatantra Party, Tarai Madhes Loktantrik Party, Sadbhawana Party and the CPN (United) are among the parties that voted for Dahal. A total of 210 parliamentarians, mostly from the UML, RPP-Nepal and a few from other fringe parties voted against him.

The constitution amendment proposal requires a two-thirds vote in Parliament to be passed. In that case, the government would need about 397 votes to amend the statute. Theoretically, the government has the required strength for passing the proposal without the UML, which has 182 seats.

Some leaders are optimistic that the RPP-Nepal, following its merger with the RPP on Monday, would support a constitutional amendment for the sake of its implementation.

The UML is said to have the backing of some fringe parties, including the CPN-ML, Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party, Rastriya Janamorcha, Janamukti and Madhes Samata Party. The opposition alliance is thought to have about 197 votes.

Analysts, however, say it will be detrimental to the constitution implementation process if the statute is amended without the UML on board. “In democracy, it is natural for the ruling parties to push their agenda. But Nepal is relatively new to the whole discourse of executing a constitution written by the elected representatives,” said Pramod Aryal, a political analyst.

“Without taking the UML into confidence, a respected force in the country, we could possibly invite [fresh] political instability. Elections could also be in limbo and we could give birth to a Trump or Brexit-like nationalist force as a result,” Aryal predicted.

Yadav disowns amendment plans

BIRGUNJ: Sanghiya Samajbadi Forum Nepal Chairman Upendra Yadav said on Monday that there had been no agreement with the agitating forces on the constitution amendment proposal that the government is working on.

Talking to journalists in Birgunj, Yadav said the government had not taken the Madhes-based parties into confidence on the amendment bill that will possibly address four of their demands. “This amendment [proposal] does not address the demands of the agitating side,” said Yadav.

“The ball is in the court of three major parties,” said Yadav. “Their decision will determine whether the grievances of the agitating sides will be addressed or the country pushed towards another conflict.”

In a different context, Yadav dismissed rumours that his party would be merged with the Baburam Bhattarai-led Naya Shakti Nepal. (PR)