The government has finally decided to take steps to amend the constitution in a bid to address the grievances of the Madhesi and Janajati parties. Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, after floating three different drafts of constitution amendment proposal, now seems to have zeroed in on a draft that he believes could largely address the agitating parties’ demands.

PM Dahal’s proposal seeks to split Province 5 so that districts from Nawalaparasi to Bardiya could be made one province along the plains without Hill districts in it. This, the prime minister believes, could address Tharus’ demand of a province as well.

For the government, the main obstacle is the main opposition CPN-UML.

UML Chairman KP Oli has repeatedly dismissed the need for a constitution amendment on various occasions. Most recently, he claimed that amendment to the constitution “is not something demanded by the Nepali people”. As it became increasingly clear that the UML was not going to support the amendment sought by the agitating parties, PM Dahal decided to change tack.

He is now trying to cobble together a two-thirds majority without the UML, which looks numerically possible if a few fringe parties and the newly unified RPP and RPP-N decide to support the amendment proposal.

On the other hand, UML leaders have already begun preparations for nationwide protests.

Had the UML decided to support the amendment proposal, the government would have been forced to dilute it, risking alienating the agitating parties, instead of taking them on board.

In that scenario, the government would have committed the same mistake that it made when it passed the constitution or endorsed the first amendment.

The constitution promulgation earlier without making much effort to address the Madhes-based parties’ grievances had led to widespread protests and violence across the Tarai, deepening the alienation between Kathmandu and the Madhes.

The Madhesi parties would similarly reject a new amendment if it reflected too many of the UML’s concerns. As things stand now, a significant section of the Morcha has reportedly given word to the prime minister that they would support the current proposal with some reservations.

Upendra Yadav, however, has said he will oppose the amendment in its current form, which some see as a strategy to stand out from the rest of the Madhesi crowd.  Clearly, it was difficult for the government to appease both the Madhesi parties and the main opposition party. But the government should realise that it is the Morcha that has been protesting against the constitution, not the UML. So it makes sense if the government tries to address Morcha’s concerns to a reasonable degree.

With the UML already dead set against the amendment, the parties do run the risk of further polarisation.  The UML will most likely try to exploit it as an electoral issue. Our hope is that the UML and the Morcha can still find middle ground on constitution amendment and that the country will be spared more rounds of needless confrontation.