The fate of the constitution amendment proposal rests on a fine balance. On Saturday, the Madhes-based parties, making a departure from their earlier position, gave an indication that the amendment is a positive move, and that it largely addressed their three major concerns—over citizenship, representation in the upper house of Parliament and working language of provinces.

Still, the support is not carte blanche: the Samyakta Loktanrik Morcha, the joint forum of a number of Madhes-based parties, wants to see the federal boundaries revised. At least, the Morcha wants the districts of Jhapa, Morang, Sunsari, Kailali and Kanchanpur in the Tarai to be named as “disputed” areas, and that their status should not be seen as final.

But even within the Madhes, a significant section of the political spectrum has still refused to accept the amendment process. The Upendra Yadav-led Sanjhigya Samajbadi Forum Nepal has taken strong exception to the amendment, saying it fails to address the Madhesi concerns. Clearly, even within Madhes, the terms of engagement for constitution amendment remain divergent.  But it is the main opposition CPN-UML’s position that has stalled the amendment process. The party’s Chairman KP Oli remains steadfastly opposed to the idea of constitution amendment in order to address minority grievances. He believes that addressing the concerns of a certain group or groups could open a Pandora’s box, seriously endangering the very survival of the new constitution.

The party is now supported by many other opposition parties and Parliament remains stalled for days. Moves by Speaker Gharti to start the parliamentary process have failed to placate the aggrieved constituencies. In fact, there is now even talk that the UML is leading a process to collect signatures of 200 lawmakers who oppose the amendment bill in an effort to preclude the two-thirds majority vote required to pass it. Should such a thing happen, it will make the very process of amendment look politically illegitimate in the public eye.

Still, efforts can be made to find common ground. With all their differences, parties will have to go to polls to seek public mandate for their respective agenda. More than any other parties, the UML looks to be in the ‘election mode’; it is the only party that has come out openly with its position on a number of issues. And it believes that its strong hill-centric and nationalist position will result in solid electoral dividends, though we have repeatedly stated here that a long-lasting political solution would be to find middle ground for a compromise.

Prime Minister and Chairman of the third largest party CPN (Maoist Centre) Pushpa Kamal Dahal needs to spend all his energy and use his political dexterity to reach out to the UML and the RPP on the one hand, and the Madhesi parties on the other. Any major force staying out of the election will lead to a serious credibility crisis for the ongoing political process, which means questioning the legitimacy of the subsequent elections.